{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46a42ba8-c969-4bc0-aab5-a5b66aced56d", "symbol": "300859", "name": "Western Regions Tourism Development Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.666, "architecture_energy": 52.104, "architecture_maturity": 86.638, "architecture_confidence": 88.328, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.94, "rotation_up": 24.74, "upward_expansion": 8.23, "deceleration": 60.13, "rotation_down": 51.55, "downward_expansion": 79.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.824, 26.173273, 27.566642, 29.273089 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 27.49, "trend_reference": 31.738973, "distance_from_trend": -0.133872, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 32.492776, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.153966, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.067945, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.278819, "excess_performance": -0.286219, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.133872, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094028, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.153966, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107289, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.260679, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08547, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.278819, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.618454, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15281072, "relative_activity": 1.007609, "balance": 0.618454, "dry_up": 1.093932, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083191, "annualized_volatility": 0.378, "from_high_reference": -0.52893, "from_low_reference": 0.160895 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.738973, "fair_value_reference": 32.492776, "structural_low": 23.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.007466, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007107, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.543531, "worst_return": -0.124377, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.023267, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.091033, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.733116, "worst_return": -0.156191, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.023483, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.140081, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.481692, "worst_return": -0.257371, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.415856, "energy": 82.770026, "activity_lines": [ 26.004667, 27.091455, 28.798253, 30.59681 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.719999, "volume": 14133762, "typical_volume": 15647678.15, "trend": 32.423934, "fair_value": 32.459749, "relative_strength": -35.095072, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.980685, "energy": 78.66607, "activity_lines": [ 25.128666, 26.365091, 28.143858, 30.003279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.66, "volume": 18562355, "typical_volume": 15495069.5, "trend": 32.044016, "fair_value": 32.467088, "relative_strength": -28.030231, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.692244, "energy": 61.610442, "activity_lines": [ 25.192666, 26.080727, 27.742173, 29.566896 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.49, "volume": 15281072, "typical_volume": 15165682.2, "trend": 31.738973, "fair_value": 32.492776, "relative_strength": -26.067945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.66639, "energy": 52.103562, "activity_lines": [ 25.824, 26.173273, 27.566642, 29.273089 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }