{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46b1a017-f9da-4a30-af83-30b68a86ec4c", "symbol": "MNRS", "name": "GRAYSCALE BITCOIN MINERS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 49.452, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.603, "architecture_energy": 29.016, "architecture_maturity": 8.643, "architecture_confidence": 67.275, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.85, "rotation_up": 14.59, "upward_expansion": 15.82, "deceleration": 63.55, "rotation_down": 68.59, "downward_expansion": 47.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.6257, 36.98396, 39.097634, 37.553568 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 34.1283, "trend_reference": 35.92583, "distance_from_trend": -0.050034, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.348234, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.088683, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.932538, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.088969, "excess_performance": -0.036656, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050034, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045425, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.088683, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.361361, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.159325, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.34902, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.088969, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.694327, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29530, "relative_activity": 0.622293, "balance": 0.694327, "dry_up": 0.781496, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.187281, "annualized_volatility": 0.655695, "from_high_reference": -0.392253, "from_low_reference": 0.468515 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.92583, "fair_value_reference": 31.348234, "structural_low": 23.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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"activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 36.879, "volume": 57256, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 37.6999, "volume": 18564, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.6914, "volume": 31729, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.7431, "volume": 27390, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.608, "volume": 59690, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.1283, "volume": 29530, "typical_volume": 47453.55, "trend": 35.92583, "fair_value": 31.348234, "relative_strength": -15.932538, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.6029, "energy": 29.015808, "activity_lines": [ 34.6257, 36.98396, 39.097634, 37.553568 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }