{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46b2fc33-c998-4f76-8aae-75deef1a5123", "symbol": "2752", "name": "Tofu Restaurant Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.482, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.836, "architecture_energy": 40.695, "architecture_maturity": 60.062, "architecture_confidence": 89.213, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.91, "rotation_up": 27.39, "upward_expansion": 5.79, "deceleration": 59.34, "rotation_down": 45.84, "downward_expansion": 79.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 176.466667, 176.681818, 178.210888, 181.611877 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 180.0, "trend_reference": 186.026418, "distance_from_trend": -0.032395, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 210.938913, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.146672, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -33.069087, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.064517, "excess_performance": -0.505889, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032395, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032374, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.146672, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006169, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.330691, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044691, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.064517, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.638858, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46017, "relative_activity": 0.417112, "balance": 0.638858, "dry_up": 0.386742, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026923, "annualized_volatility": 0.117472, "from_high_reference": -0.137929, "from_low_reference": 0.055718 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 186.026418, "fair_value_reference": 210.938913, "structural_low": 170.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.006204, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.020313, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.19244, "worst_return": -0.073359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.010989, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.105669, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.450996, "worst_return": -0.071146, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.031621, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.145111, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.067641, "worst_return": -0.116719, "sufficient": true 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117514.05, "trend": 189.728424, "fair_value": 212.726821, "relative_strength": -40.053797, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.319895, "energy": 41.57425, "activity_lines": [ 178.633333, 178.536364, 183.132874, 186.236189 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 178.0, "volume": 52170, "typical_volume": 118911.8, "trend": 189.123117, "fair_value": 212.427073, "relative_strength": -37.455565, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.573553, "energy": 42.493619, "activity_lines": [ 178.366667, 178.263636, 182.248541, 185.479516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 175.0, "volume": 53295, "typical_volume": 119857.8, "trend": 188.41781, "fair_value": 212.099984, "relative_strength": -33.767034, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.497009, "energy": 53.951144, "activity_lines": [ 177.1, 177.581818, 181.160507, 184.568347 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 175.0, "volume": 29025, "typical_volume": 118157.55, "trend": 187.743714, "fair_value": 211.789115, "relative_strength": -34.387114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.736628, "energy": 53.546783, "activity_lines": [ 176.2, 177.063636, 180.173231, 183.702682 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 174.0, "volume": 67537, "typical_volume": 113826.6, "trend": 187.145522, "fair_value": 211.477241, "relative_strength": -33.0719, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.743526, "energy": 59.516046, "activity_lines": [ 175.3, 176.490909, 179.184788, 182.815991 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 175.0, "volume": 28087, "typical_volume": 111474.95, "trend": 186.518242, "fair_value": 211.204216, "relative_strength": -33.481056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.233626, "energy": 59.281543, "activity_lines": [ 174.933333, 176.154545, 178.40602, 182.032409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 180.0, "volume": 46017, "typical_volume": 110322.9, "trend": 186.026418, "fair_value": 210.938913, "relative_strength": -33.069087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.835938, "energy": 40.695065, "activity_lines": [ 176.466667, 176.681818, 178.210888, 181.611877 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }