{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46b32c2f-f4b4-47d6-b625-0769687a78e5", "symbol": "BPCINS", "name": "BPC Instruments AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.733, "architecture_energy": 16.57, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 63.261, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.7, "rotation_up": 31.0, "upward_expansion": 26.68, "deceleration": 49.74, "rotation_down": 24.93, "downward_expansion": 51.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.156667, 17.764546, 17.749286, 18.769785 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.700001, "trend_reference": 20.603333, "distance_from_trend": -0.140916, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 32.201282, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.450332, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -41.01127, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.319231, "excess_performance": -0.380725, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.140916, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177949, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.450332, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034041, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.410113, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101794, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.319231, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.520675, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 477, "relative_activity": 0.010791, "balance": 0.520675, "dry_up": 0.161058, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09409, "annualized_volatility": 0.598351, "from_high_reference": -0.555276, "from_low_reference": 0.183947 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.603333, "fair_value_reference": 32.201282, "structural_low": 14.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.019908, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.03182, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.116822, "worst_return": -0.307531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.133333, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.289365, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.059172, "worst_return": -0.395604, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.26577, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.405668, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.068047, "worst_return": -0.463492, "sufficient": false }, { 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.183856, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041209, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069409, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097996, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005747, "active": false }, { 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-44.508958, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.325766, "energy": 37.129704, "activity_lines": [ 17.126667, 16.914545, 18.026667, 19.644731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.549999, "volume": 2674, "typical_volume": 46734.0, "trend": 21.665, "fair_value": 32.284295, "relative_strength": -44.86119, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.417667, "energy": 39.929506, "activity_lines": [ 16.95, 16.873636, 17.760476, 19.28258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.75, "volume": 21857, "typical_volume": 45997.7, "trend": 21.33, "fair_value": 32.272436, "relative_strength": -34.317219, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.695246, "energy": 19.131765, "activity_lines": [ 17.87, 17.419091, 17.850238, 19.159032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.6, "volume": 3469, "typical_volume": 44437.65, "trend": 21.003333, "fair_value": 32.241667, "relative_strength": -37.971464, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.586595, "energy": 19.595649, "activity_lines": [ 18.216666, 17.697273, 17.836905, 18.982903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.700001, "volume": 477, "typical_volume": 44203.15, "trend": 20.603333, "fair_value": 32.201282, "relative_strength": -41.01127, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.732648, "energy": 16.569608, "activity_lines": [ 18.156667, 17.764546, 17.749286, 18.769785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }