{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46b3e9da-66c8-450f-bc29-3946ad0b5419", "symbol": "MDLZ34", "name": "Mondelez International, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.739, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.624, "architecture_energy": 21.101, "architecture_maturity": 30.937, "architecture_confidence": 63.024, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.42, "rotation_up": 41.14, "upward_expansion": 66.73, "deceleration": 58.75, "rotation_down": 25.1, "downward_expansion": 12.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.328221, 52.364895, 51.911168, 51.38634 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 53.299999, "trend_reference": 50.929735, "distance_from_trend": 0.04654, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 56.234829, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.052189, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.786955, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.031187, "excess_performance": 0.088236, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04654, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023397, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.052189, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066718, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.00787, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.211816, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.031187, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.260626, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1803, "relative_activity": 0.49484, "balance": 3.260626, "dry_up": 0.332569, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057765, "annualized_volatility": 0.288049, "from_high_reference": -0.060862, "from_low_reference": 0.167438 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.929735, "fair_value_reference": 56.234829, "structural_low": 46.085583, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.02411, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.015531, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.097795, "worst_return": -0.095594, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.012833, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.041091, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.075261, "worst_return": -0.091887, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.002725, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.045231, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.11395, "worst_return": -0.157377, "sufficient": true }, { 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42.505502, "activity_lines": [ 53.223063, 52.714774, 51.369159, 50.963572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 49.833332, "volume": 2409, "typical_volume": 4826.1, "trend": 50.464706, "fair_value": 56.327074, "relative_strength": -13.178014, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.632331, "energy": 15.837603, "activity_lines": [ 52.025275, 52.301108, 51.290096, 50.927828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52.639999, "volume": 2397, "typical_volume": 4757.55, "trend": 50.554256, "fair_value": 56.30824, "relative_strength": -5.113835, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.489843, "energy": 20.061456, "activity_lines": [ 52.021571, 52.410925, 51.480024, 51.068169 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51.036667, "volume": 51, "typical_volume": 4521.6, "trend": 50.62421, "fair_value": 56.281161, "relative_strength": -7.179634, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.622923, "energy": 18.32045, "activity_lines": [ 51.618719, 52.178174, 51.513819, 51.099293 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.549999, "volume": 596, "typical_volume": 3834.55, "trend": 50.77656, "fair_value": 56.254484, "relative_strength": -5.732815, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.580305, "energy": 17.827956, "activity_lines": [ 51.765555, 52.214045, 51.690212, 51.223537 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.299999, "volume": 1803, "typical_volume": 3643.6, "trend": 50.929735, "fair_value": 56.234829, "relative_strength": -0.786955, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.623647, "energy": 21.101475, "activity_lines": [ 52.328221, 52.364895, 51.911168, 51.38634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }