{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46b3f37e-5154-4bd3-8cd1-0ffe2640e847", "symbol": "300107", "name": "Hebei Jianxin Chemical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.272, "architecture_energy": 27.202, "architecture_maturity": 76.429, "architecture_confidence": 84.595, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.09, "rotation_up": 27.04, "upward_expansion": 16.29, "deceleration": 46.92, "rotation_down": 33.31, "downward_expansion": 66.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.122, 6.004, 6.275286, 6.603871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.33, "trend_reference": 6.993667, "distance_from_trend": -0.094895, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.579581, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.164861, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.363845, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.180052, "excess_performance": -0.187452, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.094895, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045884, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.164861, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153178, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143638, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06592, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.180052, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.212327, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46263997, "relative_activity": 0.855086, "balance": 1.212327, "dry_up": 1.309141, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089318, "annualized_volatility": 0.490839, "from_high_reference": -0.411163, "from_low_reference": 0.185393 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.993667, "fair_value_reference": 7.579581, "structural_low": 5.34, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.022184, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.008943, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.788009, "worst_return": -0.110855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.030792, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.026443, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 2.291005, "worst_return": -0.087007, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.016283, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.101244, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.342869, "worst_return": -0.161065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 60101472.15, "trend": 7.036667, "fair_value": 7.562537, "relative_strength": -21.031067, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.696241, "energy": 53.658469, "activity_lines": [ 5.834, 5.907091, 6.338, 6.698495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.25, "volume": 60975200, "typical_volume": 55930383.95, "trend": 7.01, "fair_value": 7.57093, "relative_strength": -11.801322, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.798655, "energy": 38.422165, "activity_lines": [ 5.985333, 5.941455, 6.298143, 6.647742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.33, "volume": 46263997, "typical_volume": 54104489.5, "trend": 6.993667, "fair_value": 7.579581, "relative_strength": -14.363845, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.271854, "energy": 27.202372, "activity_lines": [ 6.122, 6.004, 6.275286, 6.603871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }