{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46b7c640-d529-4b8c-935e-93734c66f245", "symbol": "ALRT", "name": "Defence Holdings PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.12, "architecture_energy": 45.938, "architecture_maturity": 23.715, "architecture_confidence": 91.449, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.73, "rotation_up": 12.63, "upward_expansion": 8.55, "deceleration": 40.33, "rotation_down": 62.22, "downward_expansion": 84.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.010987, 0.011629, 0.011899, 0.012056 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.01075, "trend_reference": 0.012594, "distance_from_trend": -0.146442, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.007037, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.527712, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.409052, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.232143, "excess_performance": -0.283378, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.146442, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125252, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.527712, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095692, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.344091, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144168, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.232143, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.782943, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 111725481, "relative_activity": 1.451077, "balance": 0.782943, "dry_up": 1.008971, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.221968, "annualized_volatility": 0.692061, "from_high_reference": -0.780612, "from_low_reference": 1.905405 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.012594, "fair_value_reference": 0.007037, "structural_low": 0.009, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.142857, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.147613, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 1.063492, "worst_return": -0.631579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.19257, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.164904, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 3.315789, "worst_return": -0.693333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.344828, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.412746, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 4.857143, "worst_return": -0.906667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.689655, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.742882, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 19.0, "worst_return": -0.846667, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.251282, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.190476, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.176471, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.171875, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.626667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.666667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.278351, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.357143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 14.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.297619, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.025, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.146825, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.0059, "volume": 666404, "typical_volume": 8374202.65, "trend": 0.008323, "fair_value": 0.034244, "relative_strength": -47.080089, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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"fair_value": 0.006946, "relative_strength": -26.150012, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.221785, "energy": 24.631903, "activity_lines": [ 0.0119, 0.012419, 0.012231, 0.012499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0112, "volume": 64706258, "typical_volume": 72172494.25, "trend": 0.013213, "fair_value": 0.006977, "relative_strength": -29.543939, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.394242, "energy": 26.740724, "activity_lines": [ 0.01151, 0.012205, 0.012142, 0.012351 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0108, "volume": 85723901, "typical_volume": 73773061.5, "trend": 0.012916, "fair_value": 0.007006, "relative_strength": -33.41043, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.319691, "energy": 38.821891, "activity_lines": [ 0.011227, 0.011914, 0.012018, 0.012196 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.01075, "volume": 111725481, "typical_volume": 76994842.45, "trend": 0.012594, "fair_value": 0.007037, "relative_strength": -34.409052, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.120173, "energy": 45.938425, "activity_lines": [ 0.010987, 0.011629, 0.011899, 0.012056 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }