{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46bc799d-1876-4832-9291-e2c5144bafd0", "symbol": "XLCS", "name": "Invesco Communications S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.148, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.445, "architecture_energy": 49.327, "architecture_maturity": 37.262, "architecture_confidence": 90.272, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.32, "rotation_up": 19.8, "upward_expansion": 7.24, "deceleration": 60.14, "rotation_down": 58.22, "downward_expansion": 80.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 94.081331, 94.325817, 96.479095, 97.434279 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 95.739998, "trend_reference": 98.373667, "distance_from_trend": -0.026772, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 82.903654, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.154834, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.995108, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.03156, "excess_performance": -0.114443, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026772, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013844, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.154834, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144217, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.129951, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139573, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.03156, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.492298, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2325, "relative_activity": 0.662271, "balance": 0.492298, "dry_up": 0.532594, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026402, "annualized_volatility": 0.158986, "from_high_reference": -0.087147, "from_low_reference": 0.050472 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 98.373667, "fair_value_reference": 82.903654, "structural_low": 91.139999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.002948, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.01574, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.087739, "worst_return": -0.12746, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.051607, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.073202, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.151775, "worst_return": -0.207692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.10077, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.126854, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.350459, "worst_return": -0.304918, 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.234248, "energy": 81.877312, "activity_lines": [ 94.824001, 95.837455, 97.858619, 98.444731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 92.529999, "volume": 3936, "typical_volume": 3831.95, "trend": 98.77, "fair_value": 82.41141, "relative_strength": -15.362374, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.993027, "energy": 67.279719, "activity_lines": [ 94.118667, 94.981818, 97.257286, 98.027312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 92.339996, "volume": 1218, "typical_volume": 3452.0, "trend": 98.502, "fair_value": 82.645513, "relative_strength": -15.264331, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.355143, "energy": 60.561851, "activity_lines": [ 93.511998, 94.260181, 96.688095, 97.612473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 95.739998, "volume": 2325, "typical_volume": 3510.65, "trend": 98.373667, "fair_value": 82.903654, "relative_strength": -12.995108, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.445196, "energy": 49.327225, "activity_lines": [ 94.081331, 94.325817, 96.479095, 97.434279 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }