{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46c85ef8-6b7c-4070-a4da-527c6f9dbab4", "symbol": "ESUG", "name": "WisdomTree Sugar - EUR Daily Hedged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 50.404, "architecture_energy": 50.642, "architecture_maturity": 9.524, "architecture_confidence": 47.676, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.38, "rotation_up": 59.54, "upward_expansion": 51.79, "deceleration": 31.16, "rotation_down": 20.13, "downward_expansion": 19.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.2386, 3.182982, 3.15885, 3.163542 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.458, "trend_reference": 3.16075, "distance_from_trend": 0.094044, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.992758, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.133932, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.971055, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.124919, "excess_performance": -0.045973, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094044, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002913, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.133932, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091085, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089711, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08543, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.124919, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.181362, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18338, "relative_activity": 0.772434, "balance": 0.181362, "dry_up": 0.616656, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034635, "annualized_volatility": 0.28001, "from_high_reference": -0.093459, "from_low_reference": 0.176391 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.16075, "fair_value_reference": 3.992758, "structural_low": 2.9395, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.001185, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.024864, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.04414, "worst_return": -0.147399, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.100845, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.137891, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.034745, "worst_return": -0.130045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.03075, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.070222, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.326126, "worst_return": -0.094437, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-51.412515, "energy": 42.145918, "activity_lines": [ 3.087667, 3.108027, 3.139917, 3.145951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.2065, "volume": 1151, "typical_volume": 22526.85, "trend": 3.151533, "fair_value": 4.032964, "relative_strength": -16.478052, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.080343, "energy": 10.206208, "activity_lines": [ 3.129367, 3.121082, 3.144183, 3.14948 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.149, "volume": 16424, "typical_volume": 23339.95, "trend": 3.152817, "fair_value": 4.021784, "relative_strength": -16.081833, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.400154, "energy": 16.803446, "activity_lines": [ 3.146267, 3.123718, 3.142329, 3.149316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.0975, "volume": 15948, "typical_volume": 23915.1, "trend": 3.152383, "fair_value": 4.011143, "relative_strength": -16.677381, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.290334, "energy": 18.280491, "activity_lines": [ 3.137933, 3.118018, 3.135419, 3.145747 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.123, "volume": 7849, "typical_volume": 23867.25, "trend": 3.1528, "fair_value": 4.000877, "relative_strength": -15.865426, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.325514, "energy": 14.769639, "activity_lines": [ 3.133333, 3.119218, 3.131067, 3.143852 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.458, "volume": 18338, "typical_volume": 23740.55, "trend": 3.16075, "fair_value": 3.992758, "relative_strength": -8.971055, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.403833, "energy": 50.642392, "activity_lines": [ 3.2386, 3.182982, 3.15885, 3.163542 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }