{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46ca080e-7581-4384-8519-34c84a8bf6eb", "symbol": "001391", "name": "Air China Cargo Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.306, "architecture_energy": 58.239, "architecture_maturity": 72.062, "architecture_confidence": 87.64, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.67, "rotation_up": 28.85, "upward_expansion": 15.38, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 51.25, "downward_expansion": 79.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.246667, 4.255272, 4.536677, 4.790574 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.21, "trend_reference": 5.143416, "distance_from_trend": -0.181478, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.177798, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.318527, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.560041, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.290051, "excess_performance": -0.29745, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.181478, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113425, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.318527, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124876, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.2956, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041468, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.290051, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.643787, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 123124115, "relative_activity": 1.484595, "balance": 0.643787, "dry_up": 1.550517, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064762, "annualized_volatility": 0.217305, "from_high_reference": -0.397711, "from_low_reference": 0.040985 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.143416, "fair_value_reference": 6.177798, "structural_low": 4.044246, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": 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4.725665, 4.98687 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.18, "volume": 152395553, "typical_volume": 80713159.45, "trend": 5.261083, "fair_value": 6.224534, "relative_strength": -29.3452, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.797449, "energy": 66.838437, "activity_lines": [ 4.194255, 4.317918, 4.648796, 4.912606 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.36, "volume": 113160230, "typical_volume": 82265165.6, "trend": 5.200416, "fair_value": 6.201796, "relative_strength": -24.230467, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.657421, "energy": 62.683566, "activity_lines": [ 4.255333, 4.293309, 4.596689, 4.854472 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.21, "volume": 123124115, "typical_volume": 82934502.85, "trend": 5.143416, "fair_value": 6.177798, "relative_strength": -29.560041, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.305558, "energy": 58.238786, "activity_lines": [ 4.246667, 4.255272, 4.536677, 4.790574 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }