{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46cc9d70-2960-4073-b038-af4c2eff9077", "symbol": "600548", "name": "Shenzhen Expressway Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.588, "architecture_energy": 21.249, "architecture_maturity": 74.934, "architecture_confidence": 76.371, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.04, "rotation_up": 29.49, "upward_expansion": 21.67, "deceleration": 44.08, "rotation_down": 25.48, "downward_expansion": 55.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.489179, 8.415161, 8.560215, 8.697777 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 8.35, "trend_reference": 8.827704, "distance_from_trend": -0.054114, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.760387, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.144501, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.726449, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.079383, "excess_performance": -0.036179, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.054114, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041335, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.144501, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070918, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097264, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067176, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.079383, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.550476, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20075639, "relative_activity": 1.164819, "balance": 0.550476, "dry_up": 1.156746, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042594, "annualized_volatility": 0.171508, "from_high_reference": -0.229705, "from_low_reference": 0.057998 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.827704, "fair_value_reference": 9.760387, "structural_low": 7.892267, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.004484, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.018487, "regime_survival": 0.88, "best_return": 0.155729, "worst_return": -0.113037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.044548, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.031812, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.18451, "worst_return": -0.101778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.079309, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.051527, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.322958, "worst_return": -0.130221, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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8.415062, 8.683856, 8.790841 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.46, "volume": 18721413, "typical_volume": 18499750.1, "trend": 8.863371, "fair_value": 9.758172, "relative_strength": -5.872113, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.681051, "energy": 51.452605, "activity_lines": [ 8.338107, 8.395587, 8.645708, 8.763914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.45, "volume": 22989084, "typical_volume": 18078446.2, "trend": 8.849038, "fair_value": 9.759536, "relative_strength": -6.685369, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.220149, "energy": 31.832441, "activity_lines": [ 8.404525, 8.384657, 8.609226, 8.737245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.73, "volume": 17959831, "typical_volume": 17732937.7, "trend": 8.842704, "fair_value": 9.761566, "relative_strength": -3.579677, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.223308, "energy": 21.984895, "activity_lines": [ 8.537462, 8.433909, 8.601935, 8.729565 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.35, "volume": 20075639, "typical_volume": 17234985.2, "trend": 8.827704, "fair_value": 9.760387, "relative_strength": -9.726449, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.58767, "energy": 21.249207, "activity_lines": [ 8.489179, 8.415161, 8.560215, 8.697777 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }