{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46da11cf-e9a5-4f09-9f9d-ba7f1e8f85fa", "symbol": "NMG", "name": "Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.009, "architecture_energy": 69.469, "architecture_maturity": 62.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.962, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.52, "rotation_up": 17.38, "upward_expansion": 15.07, "deceleration": 41.3, "rotation_down": 62.17, "downward_expansion": 86.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.354667, 1.423636, 1.598048, 1.738258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.38, "trend_reference": 1.954333, "distance_from_trend": -0.293877, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.071474, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.333808, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.486345, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.339713, "excess_performance": -0.465338, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.293877, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.180344, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.333808, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.261702, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.454863, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.24657, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.339713, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.497268, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2249536, "relative_activity": 0.488316, "balance": 0.497268, "dry_up": 0.550717, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.155507, "annualized_volatility": 0.66375, "from_high_reference": -0.772277, "from_low_reference": 0.095238 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.954333, "fair_value_reference": 2.071474, "structural_low": 1.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.015873, "positive_rate": 0.410256, "directional_follow_through": 0.564103, "median_excess_return": -0.035887, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.58042, "worst_return": -0.268551, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.110429, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.136533, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.537931, "worst_return": -0.413313, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.174923, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.307795, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.456349, "worst_return": -0.38835, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.087805, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.193396, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.10625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.201183, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096045, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.362791, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.219124, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.081197, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.316832, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.69, "volume": 320963, "typical_volume": 376172.85, "trend": 3.986, "fair_value": 6.57499, "relative_strength": -44.723108, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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}, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.61, "volume": 2680447, "typical_volume": 4975002.1, "trend": 2.173, "fair_value": 2.122692, "relative_strength": -36.360416, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.586756, "energy": 71.430577, "activity_lines": [ 1.545333, 1.657636, 1.827667, 1.963054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.6, "volume": 2965728, "typical_volume": 4944978.2, "trend": 2.129, "fair_value": 2.113333, "relative_strength": -37.30105, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.579548, "energy": 62.484972, "activity_lines": [ 1.564, 1.627273, 1.794476, 1.926086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.42, "volume": 2584388, "typical_volume": 4867330.5, "trend": 2.093, "fair_value": 2.102436, "relative_strength": -42.962039, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.026434, "energy": 67.175712, "activity_lines": [ 1.519333, 1.573636, 1.746857, 1.880344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.26, "volume": 3358935, "typical_volume": 4830033.3, "trend": 2.046333, "fair_value": 2.092564, "relative_strength": -48.643095, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.156963, "energy": 69.93714, "activity_lines": [ 1.429333, 1.502182, 1.688, 1.826602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.3, "volume": 1955139, "typical_volume": 4707232.25, "trend": 2.003, "fair_value": 2.081731, "relative_strength": -47.239439, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.494868, "energy": 74.572746, "activity_lines": [ 1.374, 1.45, 1.637143, 1.778452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.38, "volume": 2249536, "typical_volume": 4606724.55, "trend": 1.954333, "fair_value": 2.071474, "relative_strength": -45.486345, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.008568, "energy": 69.469032, "activity_lines": [ 1.354667, 1.423636, 1.598048, 1.738258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }