{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46dde264-a3a7-4758-88fb-e35fa3e8860a", "symbol": "601633", "name": "Great Wall Motor Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.383, "architecture_energy": 41.533, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.658, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.62, "rotation_up": 27.53, "upward_expansion": 18.77, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 40.53, "downward_expansion": 68.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.982, 15.856368, 16.769794, 17.728781 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.58, "trend_reference": 18.936755, "distance_from_trend": -0.177261, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.283218, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.330849, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.04302, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.246979, "excess_performance": -0.203775, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.177261, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101231, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.330849, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157967, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.25043, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06111, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.246979, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.002932, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 92796015, "relative_activity": 1.289853, "balance": 1.002932, "dry_up": 1.298814, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079261, "annualized_volatility": 0.308229, "from_high_reference": -0.420171, "from_low_reference": 0.076687 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.936755, "fair_value_reference": 23.283218, "structural_low": 14.470321, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.011226, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.012143, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.406863, "worst_return": -0.168168, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.065778, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.075523, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.335247, "worst_return": -0.404154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.022012, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.147924, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.129711, "worst_return": -0.221399, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.719369, "energy": 73.527384, "activity_lines": [ 15.31633, 15.923604, 17.395356, 18.348541 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.120001, "volume": 100460541, "typical_volume": 72128204.15, "trend": 19.370755, "fair_value": 23.388777, "relative_strength": -21.058776, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.079912, "energy": 63.947825, "activity_lines": [ 15.517242, 15.850647, 17.162391, 18.125718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.809999, "volume": 89510897, "typical_volume": 72472810.7, "trend": 19.171755, "fair_value": 23.338916, "relative_strength": -17.494945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.216555, "energy": 48.435249, "activity_lines": [ 16.023165, 15.957144, 17.014521, 17.960508 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.58, "volume": 92796015, "typical_volume": 71943115.85, "trend": 18.936755, "fair_value": 23.283218, "relative_strength": -25.04302, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.382802, "energy": 41.532602, "activity_lines": [ 15.982, 15.856368, 16.769794, 17.728781 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }