{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46de955a-ceb0-49b9-b33c-2fafbfed8526", "symbol": "BMEB4", "name": "Banco Mercantil do Brasil S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.643, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.889, "architecture_energy": 66.37, "architecture_maturity": 20.735, "architecture_confidence": 79.319, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.65, "rotation_up": 12.51, "upward_expansion": 13.65, "deceleration": 41.88, "rotation_down": 71.83, "downward_expansion": 89.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.865333, 61.208909, 66.508476, 69.109927 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 59.799999, "trend_reference": 71.122013, "distance_from_trend": -0.159191, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 40.404429, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.480036, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.162056, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.232831, "excess_performance": -0.175783, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.159191, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004683, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.480036, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.523893, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101621, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176178, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.232831, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.755317, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 181500, "relative_activity": 1.656324, "balance": 1.755317, "dry_up": 1.563698, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106264, "annualized_volatility": 0.517725, "from_high_reference": -0.326425, "from_low_reference": 0.516505 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 71.122013, "fair_value_reference": 40.404429, "structural_low": 55.099998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.05892, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.004932, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.160234, "worst_return": 0.004016, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.110147, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.010744, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.211259, "worst_return": 0.009036, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.29422, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.187448, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.558614, "worst_return": 0.029825, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088685, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.224559, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008065, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021245, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086247, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.42358, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.196319, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.064717, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114171, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005157, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 11.38416, "volume": 107000, "typical_volume": 77430.0, "trend": 8.814267, "fair_value": 7.736711, "relative_strength": 27.619202, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", 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"balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.329765, "energy": 61.020187, "activity_lines": [ 67.277333, 70.9, 73.096, 73.30049 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 59.509998, "volume": 130200, "typical_volume": 119525.0, "trend": 72.51532, "fair_value": 39.151141, "relative_strength": -12.524003, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.974593, "energy": 81.330495, "activity_lines": [ 63.809333, 68.611636, 71.651112, 72.434602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 60.110001, "volume": 247200, "typical_volume": 119790.0, "trend": 71.953778, "fair_value": 39.477812, "relative_strength": -9.820563, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.997726, "energy": 81.026113, "activity_lines": [ 61.754, 66.674909, 70.329709, 71.634259 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 57.549999, "volume": 144000, "typical_volume": 117955.0, "trend": 71.329308, "fair_value": 39.787748, "relative_strength": -14.01864, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.225287, "energy": 84.892985, "activity_lines": [ 59.746666, 64.476182, 68.873714, 70.704983 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.9, "volume": 112700, "typical_volume": 110120.0, "trend": 71.094059, "fair_value": 40.094949, "relative_strength": -15.503401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.373157, "energy": 81.262948, "activity_lines": [ 58.652666, 62.516182, 67.548, 69.838576 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.799999, "volume": 181500, "typical_volume": 109580.0, "trend": 71.122013, "fair_value": 40.404429, "relative_strength": -10.162056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.888812, "energy": 66.370008, "activity_lines": [ 58.865333, 61.208909, 66.508476, 69.109927 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }