{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46e1148b-2f68-45e3-be9d-dcfdb9efd406", "symbol": "EX14", "name": "iShares Core DAX UCITS ETF (DE) EUR (Acc)", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.844, "architecture_energy": 74.571, "architecture_maturity": 15.696, "architecture_confidence": 67.33, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.12, "rotation_up": 69.5, "upward_expansion": 88.66, "deceleration": 46.51, "rotation_down": 15.0, "downward_expansion": 15.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 211.18, 209.155454, 206.320049, 204.099722 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 217.25, "trend_reference": 202.810002, "distance_from_trend": 0.0712, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 173.935065, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.249029, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.225959, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.061828, "excess_performance": -0.112419, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0712, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013297, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.249029, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054476, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12226, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028645, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.061828, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.017143, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 178, "relative_activity": 4.362745, "balance": 1.017143, "dry_up": 1.096814, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022625, "annualized_volatility": 0.176018, "from_high_reference": -0.00069, "from_low_reference": 0.197498 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 202.810002, "fair_value_reference": 173.935065, "structural_low": 181.419998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.003015, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.003266, "regime_survival": 0.735294, "best_return": 0.08712, "worst_return": -0.11153, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.017442, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.025, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.125301, "worst_return": -0.0707, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.052891, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.035248, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.172361, "worst_return": -0.011239, "sufficient": 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"modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.606236, "energy": 43.314551, "activity_lines": [ 206.613331, 205.913636, 203.151763, 202.267034 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 206.800003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 37.1, "trend": 202.268335, "fair_value": 172.894039, "relative_strength": -14.81641, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.060477, "energy": 49.312369, "activity_lines": [ 206.686666, 206.230909, 203.792954, 202.57112 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 211.25, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 34.4, "trend": 202.538335, "fair_value": 173.398847, "relative_strength": -12.517843, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.616169, "energy": 45.293052, "activity_lines": [ 208.21, 207.199091, 204.811953, 203.150582 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 217.25, "volume": 178, "typical_volume": 40.8, "trend": 202.810002, "fair_value": 173.935065, "relative_strength": -12.225959, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.843576, "energy": 74.571316, "activity_lines": [ 211.18, 209.155454, 206.320049, 204.099722 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }