{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46e32727-ec91-4c71-a473-d264116db396", "symbol": "002379", "name": "Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.416, "architecture_energy": 32.815, "architecture_maturity": 85.042, "architecture_confidence": 75.921, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.76, "rotation_up": 34.69, "upward_expansion": 22.22, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 25.86, "downward_expansion": 60.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.312666, 17.983636, 19.24428, 21.313962 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 19.76, "trend_reference": 23.96665, "distance_from_trend": -0.175521, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.989734, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.648077, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.066629, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.341251, "excess_performance": -0.348651, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.175521, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059753, "read": "Falling" 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13.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.014709, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.052832, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.133333, "worst_return": -0.039813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.08867, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.175766, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.400932, "worst_return": 0.056886, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.110838, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.221199, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.167832, "worst_return": -0.01497, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-78.214922, "energy": 91.543933, "activity_lines": [ 15.21, 16.881818, 20.384767, 22.565842 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.09, "volume": 464099457, "typical_volume": 126969801.25, "trend": 24.317212, "fair_value": 11.690109, "relative_strength": -16.610326, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.326287, "energy": 66.097119, "activity_lines": [ 15.994667, 16.819636, 19.894956, 22.153841 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.059999, "volume": 417150341, "typical_volume": 139885128.15, "trend": 24.193063, "fair_value": 11.784284, "relative_strength": -12.654631, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.983578, "energy": 54.06936, "activity_lines": [ 17.068, 17.035454, 19.549221, 21.814666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.77, "volume": 400369493, "typical_volume": 154145973.65, "trend": 24.097845, "fair_value": 11.890754, "relative_strength": -3.613698, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.758254, "energy": 33.840016, "activity_lines": [ 18.555333, 17.599818, 19.419505, 21.593823 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.76, "volume": 407756266, "typical_volume": 166895740.05, "trend": 23.96665, "fair_value": 11.989734, "relative_strength": -13.066629, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.415589, "energy": 32.814873, "activity_lines": [ 19.312666, 17.983636, 19.24428, 21.313962 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }