{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46ecf0c2-a7c0-48c1-99d1-c2a7bcbe0c32", "symbol": "TCH-F78", "name": "Tachlit Index Sal Ltd. - Tachlit SAL (4D) NIKKEI 225", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.977, "architecture_energy": 67.7, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.379, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 29.93, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.99, "rotation_down": 56.22, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 321.933333, 326.314545, 7988.93, 13311.125376 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 327.0, "trend_reference": 19334.193333, "distance_from_trend": -0.983087, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23189.332051, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.985899, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.708415, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.988526, "excess_performance": -1.017427, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983087, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.317368, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.985899, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.23989, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.987084, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.857346, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.988526, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.633356, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5066, "relative_activity": 0.925305, "balance": 1.633356, "dry_up": 1.44636, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 8.057422, "annualized_volatility": 6.344201, "from_high_reference": -0.989536, "from_low_reference": 0.07814 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19334.193333, "fair_value_reference": 23189.332051, "structural_low": 303.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.005671, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.015187, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.080864, "worst_return": -0.061638, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.038674, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.099582, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.077785, "worst_return": -0.075235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.045506, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.162011, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.20224, "worst_return": -0.110999, "sufficient": false }, { 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"2026-07-10", "close": 335.2, "volume": 12219, "typical_volume": 6144.65, "trend": 22878.576667, "fair_value": 23728.572436, "relative_strength": -98.764677, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.682996, "energy": 89.029669, "activity_lines": [ 337.58, 5734.003636, 14774.729524, 18791.346667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 315.4, "volume": 2085, "typical_volume": 6100.9, "trend": 21998.423333, "fair_value": 23594.440385, "relative_strength": -98.835643, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.780722, "energy": 85.654185, "activity_lines": [ 330.786667, 3569.216364, 12869.209048, 17335.657849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 316.4, "volume": 13724, "typical_volume": 6160.3, "trend": 21110.97, "fair_value": 23456.083974, "relative_strength": -98.835315, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.653964, "energy": 68.853272, "activity_lines": [ 324.52, 1954.512727, 11110.424762, 15936.817634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 319.7, "volume": 10800, "typical_volume": 5684.55, "trend": 20233.96, "fair_value": 23324.928205, "relative_strength": -98.764275, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.462993, "energy": 68.505862, "activity_lines": [ 321.426667, 877.565455, 9484.68619, 14595.445376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 327.0, "volume": 5066, "typical_volume": 5474.95, "trend": 19334.193333, "fair_value": 23189.332051, "relative_strength": -98.708415, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.97659, "energy": 67.700278, "activity_lines": [ 321.933333, 326.314545, 7988.93, 13311.125376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }