{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46f1fd6e-2bee-4514-a342-bd11299ae854", "symbol": "UPSD", "name": "APTUS LARGE CAP UPSIDE ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.331, "architecture_energy": 86.727, "architecture_maturity": 29.534, "architecture_confidence": 74.69, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.58, "rotation_up": 78.66, "upward_expansion": 94.91, "deceleration": 42.4, "rotation_down": 12.48, "downward_expansion": 19.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.326193, 28.901505, 28.398665, 27.968141 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 30.1708, "trend_reference": 27.574157, "distance_from_trend": 0.094169, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.673438, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.175176, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.497004, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.093024, "excess_performance": -0.032601, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094169, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024057, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.175176, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078005, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.00497, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047313, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093024, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.128947, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49068, "relative_activity": 0.656899, "balance": 2.128947, "dry_up": 0.597077, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023855, "annualized_volatility": 0.1526, "from_high_reference": -0.003606, "from_low_reference": 0.225957 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.574157, "fair_value_reference": 25.673438, "structural_low": 24.61, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.002737, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.012861, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.035893, "worst_return": -0.03042, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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75795.0, "trend": 27.47726, "fair_value": 25.622906, "relative_strength": -0.696834, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.214229, "energy": 77.33181, "activity_lines": [ 28.881673, 28.57813, 28.149559, 27.794364 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.1708, "volume": 49068, "typical_volume": 74696.4, "trend": 27.574157, "fair_value": 25.673438, "relative_strength": -0.497004, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.330525, "energy": 86.72732, "activity_lines": [ 29.326193, 28.901505, 28.398665, 27.968141 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }