{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46f656a1-5849-42dc-8bb0-30e83c642aa1", "symbol": "STM", "name": "STMicroelectronics NV ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 5.372, "architecture_energy": 24.465, "architecture_maturity": 71.825, "architecture_confidence": 70.763, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.93, "rotation_up": 15.32, "upward_expansion": 42.34, "deceleration": 87.99, "rotation_down": 44.24, "downward_expansion": 34.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.017333, 61.733791, 62.714522, 57.29026 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 56.1, "trend_reference": 49.413522, "distance_from_trend": 0.135317, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.774534, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.568155, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 29.017469, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.884691, "excess_performance": 0.759066, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.135317, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.380455, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.568155, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159971, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.290175, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.470222, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.884691, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.190576, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44788052, "relative_activity": 0.779888, "balance": 2.190576, "dry_up": 1.093487, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.16951, "annualized_volatility": 0.580961, "from_high_reference": -0.310124, "from_low_reference": 1.674241 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.413522, "fair_value_reference": 35.774534, "structural_low": 30.289677, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.068179, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.038433, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.176993, "worst_return": -0.150052, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.024242, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.054221, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.167523, "worst_return": -0.062221, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.028663, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.089828, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.193787, "worst_return": -0.144246, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02458, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007733, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.167442, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.165747, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061142, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1985, 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.938161, "energy": 57.477117, "activity_lines": [ 71.916633, 71.355195, 62.805427, 55.129417 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 62.06, "volume": 65921619, "typical_volume": 55057634.2, "trend": 46.819802, "fair_value": 35.684775, "relative_strength": 53.254397, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.191372, "energy": 36.569235, "activity_lines": [ 68.154848, 70.024461, 63.578869, 56.190747 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51.54, "volume": 73503573, "typical_volume": 56644958.25, "trend": 47.665592, "fair_value": 35.682315, "relative_strength": 26.75725, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.80044, "energy": 22.331114, "activity_lines": [ 61.896, 66.727119, 63.214482, 56.495276 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.39, "volume": 66977470, "typical_volume": 57388120.55, "trend": 48.502155, "fair_value": 35.708967, "relative_strength": 26.138732, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.095291, "energy": 22.234045, "activity_lines": [ 57.704, 63.762391, 62.834531, 56.800076 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.1, "volume": 44788052, "typical_volume": 57428849.75, "trend": 49.413522, "fair_value": 35.774534, "relative_strength": 29.017469, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.372055, "energy": 24.465095, "activity_lines": [ 56.017333, 61.733791, 62.714522, 57.29026 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }