{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46f66df7-f0ef-430e-9e3a-392cbadec169", "symbol": "601689", "name": "Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.425, "architecture_energy": 74.065, "architecture_maturity": 23.581, "architecture_confidence": 81.478, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.16, "rotation_up": 9.11, "upward_expansion": 16.88, "deceleration": 37.3, "rotation_down": 73.27, "downward_expansion": 90.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.937334, 52.486364, 57.057895, 59.006048 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 50.380001, "trend_reference": 62.565462, "distance_from_trend": -0.194763, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 51.893363, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.029163, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.862827, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.29728, "excess_performance": -0.254077, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.194763, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060017, "read": "Falling" 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44.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.043192, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": 0.055229, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.370022, "worst_return": -0.154647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.240584, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.173715, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.544868, "worst_return": -0.190975, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.352461, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.258661, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.146921, "worst_return": 0.003663, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.147821, "energy": 66.753586, "activity_lines": [ 55.858666, 58.93251, 60.652777, 62.235574 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.619999, "volume": 157448716, "typical_volume": 148217006.5, "trend": 64.246731, "fair_value": 51.894003, "relative_strength": -26.048293, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.619278, "energy": 70.976232, "activity_lines": [ 52.031333, 55.99, 59.187882, 60.983994 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.650002, "volume": 143042209, "typical_volume": 150430348.35, "trend": 63.441434, "fair_value": 51.875096, "relative_strength": -24.657888, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.760417, "energy": 76.931939, "activity_lines": [ 49.659333, 53.668182, 57.907069, 59.848722 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.380001, "volume": 161028911, "typical_volume": 153737368.75, "trend": 62.565462, "fair_value": 51.893363, "relative_strength": -20.862827, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.425426, "energy": 74.065003, "activity_lines": [ 48.937334, 52.486364, 57.057895, 59.006048 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }