{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46fea8f6-d01b-47a3-9ebc-7346ece45120", "symbol": "DURA", "name": "VANECK DURABLE HIGH DIVIDEND ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.076, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.047, "architecture_energy": 74.501, "architecture_maturity": 7.361, "architecture_confidence": 70.592, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.13, "rotation_up": 79.06, "upward_expansion": 93.84, "deceleration": 39.32, "rotation_down": 10.02, "downward_expansion": 15.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.5755, 38.183369, 37.858299, 37.642842 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 38.853, "trend_reference": 37.286685, "distance_from_trend": 0.042007, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.048632, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.212314, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.457543, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.043612, "excess_performance": -0.082013, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042007, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042214, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.212314, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030068, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024575, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008056, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.043612, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.564738, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18071, "relative_activity": 1.596801, "balance": 2.564738, "dry_up": 1.2388, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02008, "annualized_volatility": 0.099633, "from_high_reference": -0.014384, "from_low_reference": 0.264681 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.286685, "fair_value_reference": 32.048632, "structural_low": 34.96622, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.004617, "positive_rate": 0.46875, "directional_follow_through": 0.46875, "median_excess_return": -0.000223, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.067406, "worst_return": -0.035592, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.007177, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.024172, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.115308, "worst_return": -0.1142, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.011506, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001081, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.129293, "worst_return": -0.038921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 31.922458, "relative_strength": 1.668702, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.598725, "energy": 58.683448, "activity_lines": [ 38.101002, 37.840342, 37.610017, 37.42685 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.5905, "volume": 13930, "typical_volume": 10620.75, "trend": 37.130201, "fair_value": 31.985229, "relative_strength": 0.249045, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.188834, "energy": 67.22079, "activity_lines": [ 38.332807, 37.98959, 37.725261, 37.531694 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.853, "volume": 18071, "typical_volume": 11317.0, "trend": 37.286685, "fair_value": 32.048632, "relative_strength": -2.457543, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.046622, "energy": 74.500898, "activity_lines": [ 38.5755, 38.183369, 37.858299, 37.642842 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }