{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4700f426-2f6d-4d77-8ee0-d94a84c26b48", "symbol": "RETAIL", "name": "JHS Svendgaard Retail Ventures Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.624, "architecture_energy": 58.694, "architecture_maturity": 80.219, "architecture_confidence": 88.799, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.62, "rotation_up": 15.37, "upward_expansion": 11.32, "deceleration": 40.82, "rotation_down": 68.34, "downward_expansion": 89.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.627333, 17.194727, 18.181571, 18.968172 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 16.27, "trend_reference": 20.407333, "distance_from_trend": -0.202738, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.294234, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.511327, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.697329, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.354109, "excess_performance": -0.3104, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.202738, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130814, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.511327, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100487, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.346973, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06398, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.354109, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.963044, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30125, "relative_activity": 0.959067, "balance": 0.963044, "dry_up": 0.521549, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139426, "annualized_volatility": 0.511528, "from_high_reference": -0.631317, "from_low_reference": 0.029096 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.407333, "fair_value_reference": 33.294234, "structural_low": 15.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.030896, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.025353, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.165694, "worst_return": -0.308313, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.130198, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.09583, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.013644, "worst_return": -0.27404, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.264135, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.185981, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.264135, "worst_return": -0.264135, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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19.195857, 20.109979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.129999, "volume": 10129, "typical_volume": 31893.3, "trend": 21.207, "fair_value": 33.761667, "relative_strength": -33.740529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.3425, "energy": 53.810469, "activity_lines": [ 17.752667, 18.228182, 18.945048, 19.828946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.65, "volume": 10627, "typical_volume": 30645.95, "trend": 20.896667, "fair_value": 33.604679, "relative_strength": -33.139212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.143556, "energy": 58.196842, "activity_lines": [ 17.294666, 17.866, 18.684952, 19.534946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.48, "volume": 14648, "typical_volume": 30904.65, "trend": 20.638333, "fair_value": 33.449, "relative_strength": -34.511754, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.032398, "energy": 57.931242, "activity_lines": [ 16.938666, 17.524, 18.434619, 19.25 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.27, "volume": 30125, "typical_volume": 31410.75, "trend": 20.407333, "fair_value": 33.294234, "relative_strength": -34.697329, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.624462, "energy": 58.693761, "activity_lines": [ 16.627333, 17.194727, 18.181571, 18.968172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }