{ "ticker": { "uuid": "470a4665-1666-4bb6-9d82-e1ffca63e046", "symbol": "SOR", "name": "Strategic Elements Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.674, "architecture_energy": 24.042, "architecture_maturity": 57.995, "architecture_confidence": 88.907, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.59, "rotation_up": 26.23, "upward_expansion": 14.13, "deceleration": 44.07, "rotation_down": 34.58, "downward_expansion": 64.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.034933, 0.0346, 0.035279, 0.036571 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.036, "trend_reference": 0.039717, "distance_from_trend": -0.09358, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.051888, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.306196, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.900302, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.294118, "excess_performance": -0.357823, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.09358, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150446, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.306196, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022911, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.269003, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11771, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.294118, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.743083, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1463689, "relative_activity": 0.949264, "balance": 0.743083, "dry_up": 0.771034, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082265, "annualized_volatility": 0.493351, "from_high_reference": -0.55, "from_low_reference": 0.125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.039717, "fair_value_reference": 0.051888, "structural_low": 0.032, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 49, "median_return": -0.044118, "positive_rate": 0.22449, "directional_follow_through": 0.632653, "median_excess_return": -0.050636, "regime_survival": 0.877551, "best_return": 0.45283, "worst_return": -0.18, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.115385, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.142964, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.34375, "worst_return": -0.275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.167184, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.194766, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.130435, "worst_return": -0.403846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.036, "volume": 1239512, "typical_volume": 1548326.4, "trend": 0.041217, "fair_value": 0.052785, "relative_strength": -22.645403, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.107837, "energy": 36.996704, "activity_lines": [ 0.034333, 0.034473, 0.035488, 0.037332 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.034, "volume": 1281718, "typical_volume": 1520581.15, "trend": 0.040583, "fair_value": 0.052298, "relative_strength": -28.661158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.48465, "energy": 35.336327, "activity_lines": [ 0.034333, 0.034345, 0.035276, 0.036867 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.036, "volume": 1463689, "typical_volume": 1541919.55, "trend": 0.039717, "fair_value": 0.051888, "relative_strength": -26.900302, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.673937, "energy": 24.042433, "activity_lines": [ 0.034933, 0.0346, 0.035279, 0.036571 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }