{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "470b126f-9450-4ac7-87a8-f5c8a177d650",
    "symbol": "BMIN4",
    "name": "Banco Mercantil de Investimentos S.A.",
    "exchange": "SAO",
    "country": "BR",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^BVSP",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing",
    "transition": "stage_1_building",
    "transition_label": "Base still building",
    "confidence": 52.232,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -46.86,
    "architecture_energy": 23.701,
    "architecture_maturity": 48.326,
    "architecture_confidence": 67.531,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 35.21,
        "rotation_up": 29.0,
        "upward_expansion": 21.18,
        "deceleration": 43.91,
        "rotation_down": 30.96,
        "downward_expansion": 57.51
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        17.992666,
        18.001273,
        17.955714,
        18.110222
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 17.799999,
    "trend_reference": 18.33258,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.029051,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 15.527335,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.146365,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -2.341375,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.094621,
    "excess_performance": -0.037573,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.029051,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.014443,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.146365,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.036096,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.023414,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.090183,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.094621,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.2,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 100,
      "relative_activity": 0.20202,
      "balance": 2.2,
      "dry_up": 0.606061,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.012316,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.67452,
      "from_high_reference": -0.314955,
      "from_low_reference": 0.139255
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 18.33258,
      "fair_value_reference": 15.527335,
      "structural_low": 16.266985,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 18,
        "median_return": -0.012457,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001341,
        "regime_survival": 0.833333,
        "best_return": 0.077752,
        "worst_return": -0.085655,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.03252,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.02731,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.136239,
        "worst_return": -0.105319,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.080887,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.064432,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.070113,
        "worst_return": -0.11144,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.025044,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.02977,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.206231,
        "worst_return": -0.25632,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-09-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.03125,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-13",
        "end": "2024-11-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.024242,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.10774,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.055974,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.032827,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-09-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.051714,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-10-03",
        "end": "2025-10-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.007084,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-10-24",
        "end": "2025-10-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.036752,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-07",
        "end": "2025-11-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.059719,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-11-21",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.069726,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.013143,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-07-03",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
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        "return": 0.011364,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 2700.0,
        "trend": 17.846685,
        "fair_value": 14.963324,
        "relative_strength": -14.120597,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 4.287464,
        "energy": 9.174611,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.899333,
          18.248976,
          18.515411,
          18.296421
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 17.75,
        "volume": 400,
        "typical_volume": 2700.0,
        "trend": 17.90242,
        "fair_value": 15.011062,
        "relative_strength": -11.359653,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -13.199393,
        "energy": 18.724934,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.797333,
          18.093818,
          18.448353,
          18.290184
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 17.75,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 2530.0,
        "trend": 17.964141,
        "fair_value": 15.056253,
        "relative_strength": -7.764268,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -12.772818,
        "energy": 24.415324,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.712,
          17.925272,
          18.380039,
          18.28035
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 17.85,
        "volume": 100,
        "typical_volume": 2495.0,
        "trend": 18.027621,
        "fair_value": 15.103359,
        "relative_strength": -6.482821,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -13.189504,
        "energy": 18.439417,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.743333,
          17.891273,
          18.321389,
          18.272986
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 17.85,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 2475.0,
        "trend": 18.071566,
        "fair_value": 15.145637,
        "relative_strength": -4.935054,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -19.656889,
        "energy": 13.310747,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.796667,
          17.862363,
          18.260872,
          18.261527
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 17.85,
        "volume": 400,
        "typical_volume": 2485.0,
        "trend": 18.128429,
        "fair_value": 15.191045,
        "relative_strength": -2.080473,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -21.525735,
        "energy": 22.910965,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.83,
          17.839818,
          18.198218,
          18.247232
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 17.82,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 2410.0,
        "trend": 18.152155,
        "fair_value": 15.225758,
        "relative_strength": -3.272758,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -15.78669,
        "energy": 38.873201,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.833333,
          17.819273,
          18.131019,
          18.227334
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 18.02,
        "volume": 200,
        "typical_volume": 2405.0,
        "trend": 18.185698,
        "fair_value": 15.263821,
        "relative_strength": -0.585585,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -14.174663,
        "energy": 40.480165,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.898667,
          17.838364,
          18.086726,
          18.218808
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 18.02,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 2375.0,
        "trend": 18.219242,
        "fair_value": 15.299762,
        "relative_strength": -3.123666,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -38.814069,
        "energy": 45.40391,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.946,
          17.875273,
          18.050918,
          18.208117
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 17.940001,
        "volume": 100,
        "typical_volume": 2345.0,
        "trend": 18.234365,
        "fair_value": 15.335191,
        "relative_strength": -3.896608,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -37.1704,
        "energy": 40.279452,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.955334,
          17.900546,
          18.015303,
          18.190102
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 17.940001,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 2325.0,
        "trend": 18.262406,
        "fair_value": 15.374333,
        "relative_strength": -5.539544,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -37.717108,
        "energy": 43.075614,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.958667,
          17.918728,
          17.986303,
          18.171111
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 17.940001,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 2255.0,
        "trend": 18.277529,
        "fair_value": 15.41496,
        "relative_strength": -3.006168,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -41.482577,
        "energy": 57.787268,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.956001,
          17.929819,
          17.957619,
          18.15031
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 18.889999,
        "volume": 700,
        "typical_volume": 850.0,
        "trend": 18.314552,
        "fair_value": 15.459077,
        "relative_strength": 2.122678,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": 33.545308,
        "energy": 70.30453,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.262,
          18.110182,
          18.015,
          18.189824
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 17.6,
        "volume": 400,
        "typical_volume": 595.0,
        "trend": 18.319287,
        "fair_value": 15.494926,
        "relative_strength": -6.617258,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -41.841009,
        "energy": 27.456949,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.08,
          18.035273,
          17.974572,
          18.143724
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 17.799999,
        "volume": 100,
        "typical_volume": 495.0,
        "trend": 18.33258,
        "fair_value": 15.527335,
        "relative_strength": -2.341375,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -46.859685,
        "energy": 23.700791,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.992666,
          18.001273,
          17.955714,
          18.110222
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}