{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47107c84-8848-4ca4-9c35-1896acd1194e", "symbol": "600103", "name": "Fujian Qingshan Paper Industry Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.248, "architecture_energy": 80.572, "architecture_maturity": 30.622, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.18, "rotation_up": 14.04, "upward_expansion": 20.03, "deceleration": 37.6, "rotation_down": 69.39, "downward_expansion": 93.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.784, 2.909455, 3.355682, 3.52102 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.93, "trend_reference": 3.698466, "distance_from_trend": -0.20778, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.668437, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.098021, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.458378, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.231418, "excess_performance": -0.188214, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.20778, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070689, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.098021, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.775366, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.184584, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.539535, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.231418, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.357495, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 744121985, "relative_activity": 1.178421, "balance": 0.357495, "dry_up": 0.756217, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123372, "annualized_volatility": 0.519887, "from_high_reference": -0.486716, "from_low_reference": 0.299108 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.698466, "fair_value_reference": 2.668437, "structural_low": 2.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.013343, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.010911, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.109091, "worst_return": -0.166666, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.025974, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.036809, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.230337, "worst_return": -0.172821, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.01771, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.038314, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.690098, "worst_return": -0.125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 3.100667, 3.410098, 3.738225, 3.797841 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.63, "volume": 384824912, "typical_volume": 610432705.1, "trend": 3.835619, "fair_value": 2.670725, "relative_strength": -23.020191, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.214838, "energy": 85.421444, "activity_lines": [ 2.908, 3.209698, 3.624216, 3.717516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.6, "volume": 426015314, "typical_volume": 615241500.05, "trend": 3.78989, "fair_value": 2.667919, "relative_strength": -24.96151, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.928062, "energy": 90.676366, "activity_lines": [ 2.763333, 3.045116, 3.513264, 3.637799 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.79, "volume": 355109768, "typical_volume": 616416035.1, "trend": 3.740181, "fair_value": 2.667445, "relative_strength": -19.994645, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.408824, "energy": 86.15888, "activity_lines": [ 2.740667, 2.951636, 3.4258, 3.57329 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.93, "volume": 744121985, "typical_volume": 631456616.45, "trend": 3.698466, "fair_value": 2.668437, "relative_strength": -18.458378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.248498, "energy": 80.571678, "activity_lines": [ 2.784, 2.909455, 3.355682, 3.52102 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }