{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4711d09d-efa6-4cdf-b186-1f125ef814de", "symbol": "CVCB3", "name": "CVC Brasil Operadora e Ag\u00eancia de Viagens S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.918, "architecture_energy": 37.109, "architecture_maturity": 80.107, "architecture_confidence": 91.39, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.2, "rotation_up": 26.9, "upward_expansion": 17.46, "deceleration": 46.51, "rotation_down": 39.63, "downward_expansion": 67.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.37, 1.342364, 1.479429, 1.630753 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.52, "trend_reference": 1.856, "distance_from_trend": -0.181034, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.220705, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.315533, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.411537, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.394422, "excess_performance": -0.337374, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.181034, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10669, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.315533, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.244511, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.234115, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104545, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.394422, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.547046, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 105012900, "relative_activity": 1.762682, "balance": 0.547046, "dry_up": 1.408441, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.148785, "annualized_volatility": 0.644643, "from_high_reference": -0.455197, "from_low_reference": 0.433962 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.856, "fair_value_reference": 2.220705, "structural_low": 1.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.000788, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036521, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.256831, "worst_return": -0.351064, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.051599, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.039261, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.482353, "worst_return": -0.438878, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.034826, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.211963, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.409639, "worst_return": -0.521927, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.398497, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.466314, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.518072, "worst_return": -0.586077, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.186747, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.234973, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.10396, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004926, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.15493, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.188235, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062802, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039683, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.211155, 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"fair_value": 2.249872, "relative_strength": -41.767924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.529036, "energy": 61.30891, "activity_lines": [ 1.271333, 1.340364, 1.564143, 1.732796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.34, "volume": 115637200, "typical_volume": 58078265.0, "trend": 1.919, "fair_value": 2.239038, "relative_strength": -35.081599, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.510011, "energy": 53.786469, "activity_lines": [ 1.290667, 1.323455, 1.528, 1.693871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.31, "volume": 37683400, "typical_volume": 57312960.0, "trend": 1.889333, "fair_value": 2.228077, "relative_strength": -36.883048, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.875035, "energy": 49.478104, "activity_lines": [ 1.292, 1.309636, 1.492333, 1.654581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.52, "volume": 105012900, "typical_volume": 59575625.0, "trend": 1.856, "fair_value": 2.220705, "relative_strength": -23.411537, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.917601, "energy": 37.108954, "activity_lines": [ 1.37, 1.342364, 1.479429, 1.630753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }