{ "ticker": { "uuid": "471a68b6-d4b0-465d-9f85-d1b6b36528a2", "symbol": "PFV", "name": "Pfeiffer Vacuum Technology AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.57, "architecture_energy": 28.221, "architecture_maturity": 12.756, "architecture_confidence": 82.422, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.54, "rotation_up": 19.33, "upward_expansion": 3.04, "deceleration": 57.13, "rotation_down": 45.18, "downward_expansion": 74.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 164.045335, 164.107225, 164.998828, 165.256366 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 164.800003, "trend_reference": 165.320855, "distance_from_trend": -0.003151, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 150.044168, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.098343, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.958104, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.002421, "excess_performance": -0.176668, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003151, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015568, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.098343, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040936, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.169581, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065262, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002421, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 1.573427, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013206, "annualized_volatility": 0.057089, "from_high_reference": -0.022539, "from_low_reference": 0.068742 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 165.320855, "fair_value_reference": 150.044168, "structural_low": 161.199716, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.000661, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008158, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.301187, "worst_return": -0.112987, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.014531, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.008576, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.331804, "worst_return": -0.133775, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.005284, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.013698, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.20948, "worst_return": -0.203688, "sufficient": false }, { 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148.204487, "relative_strength": -13.904916, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.614926, "energy": 49.49531, "activity_lines": [ 167.453336, 167.265455, 166.522857, 165.132473 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 167.199997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8.75, "trend": 163.166666, "fair_value": 148.396944, "relative_strength": -12.515751, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.415694, "energy": 41.702581, "activity_lines": [ 167.346667, 167.334546, 166.650476, 165.417204 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 162.348419, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8.75, "trend": 163.391613, "fair_value": 148.568771, "relative_strength": -16.945999, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.578575, "energy": 11.714495, "activity_lines": [ 165.622807, 166.466985, 166.291278, 165.364414 ] }, { "date": 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"activity_lines": [ 164.254489, 165.206284, 165.799057, 165.468083 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 163.87999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8.75, "trend": 164.474187, "fair_value": 149.321256, "relative_strength": -17.13743, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.033873, "energy": 40.888483, "activity_lines": [ 164.071443, 164.825452, 165.611696, 165.445833 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 164.800003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8.75, "trend": 164.754188, "fair_value": 149.50996, "relative_strength": -14.627885, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.423116, "energy": 17.686568, "activity_lines": [ 164.416401, 164.672259, 165.517289, 165.466854 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 164.0, "volume": 45, "typical_volume": 11.0, "trend": 164.980854, "fair_value": 149.687721, "relative_strength": -15.794043, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.956537, "energy": 20.152531, "activity_lines": [ 164.331253, 164.435429, 165.348595, 165.418196 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 162.800003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7.15, "trend": 165.127521, "fair_value": 149.855463, "relative_strength": -15.919027, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.011611, "energy": 28.747723, "activity_lines": [ 163.812579, 164.045872, 165.072283, 165.277496 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 164.800003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7.15, "trend": 165.320855, "fair_value": 150.044168, "relative_strength": -16.958104, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.569535, "energy": 28.220625, "activity_lines": [ 164.045335, 164.107225, 164.998828, 165.256366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }