{ "ticker": { "uuid": "471f2a5d-792e-49b6-b35f-2750ab7f4d60", "symbol": "ATHE", "name": "Alterity Therapeutics Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.223, "architecture_energy": 19.669, "architecture_maturity": 63.382, "architecture_confidence": 82.18, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.09, "rotation_up": 26.64, "upward_expansion": 56.69, "deceleration": 87.83, "rotation_down": 29.07, "downward_expansion": 18.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.594667, 4.746091, 4.590003, 4.369544 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.45, "trend_reference": 4.073893, "distance_from_trend": 0.092321, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.112983, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.429497, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.383251, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.260623, "excess_performance": 0.07317, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092321, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118261, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.429497, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139365, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043833, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018368, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.260623, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.383599, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12255, "relative_activity": 0.068576, "balance": 3.383599, "dry_up": 0.272293, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.152845, "annualized_volatility": 0.549741, "from_high_reference": -0.244764, "from_low_reference": 0.672932 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.073893, "fair_value_reference": 3.112983, "structural_low": 3.09, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.058091, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.014095, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.126761, "worst_return": -0.233588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.268571, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.13549, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.315789, "worst_return": -0.319249, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.241918, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.330675, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.025822, "worst_return": -0.458015, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"gate": "up", "direction": 58.582015, "energy": 51.947222, "activity_lines": [ 4.963333, 4.825818, 4.568601, 4.316574 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.415, "volume": 21584, "typical_volume": 180223.4, "trend": 4.042893, "fair_value": 3.102791, "relative_strength": -1.27083, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.748091, "energy": 27.023744, "activity_lines": [ 4.759667, 4.785273, 4.579576, 4.343279 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.45, "volume": 12255, "typical_volume": 178706.6, "trend": 4.073893, "fair_value": 3.112983, "relative_strength": -4.383251, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.223174, "energy": 19.669249, "activity_lines": [ 4.594667, 4.746091, 4.590003, 4.369544 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }