{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47217319-2d51-4995-b2d4-d748b6754493", "symbol": "NERD", "name": "ROUNDHILL VIDEO GAMES ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 65.817, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 40.801, "architecture_energy": 36.018, "architecture_maturity": 95.107, "architecture_confidence": 65.825, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.84, "rotation_up": 62.3, "upward_expansion": 34.56, "deceleration": 36.6, "rotation_down": 17.02, "downward_expansion": 23.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.225753, 20.768536, 20.59055, 20.70058 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 22.369, "trend_reference": 21.09997, "distance_from_trend": 0.060144, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.656313, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.138006, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.628946, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.022962, "excess_performance": -0.102663, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060144, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066001, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.138006, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062423, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.146289, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104363, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.022962, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.776025, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5145, "relative_activity": 0.618326, "balance": 0.776025, "dry_up": 0.732467, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035249, "annualized_volatility": 0.222372, "from_high_reference": -0.21871, "from_low_reference": 0.176696 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.09997, "fair_value_reference": 19.656313, "structural_low": 19.01, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.030098, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.017352, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.122715, "worst_return": -0.149272, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.098101, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.088898, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.137614, "worst_return": -0.198442, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.16651, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.146348, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.128152, "worst_return": -0.268979, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.638949, "energy": 20.573436, "activity_lines": [ 20.420133, 20.236873, 20.402659, 20.720932 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.9514, "volume": 5296, "typical_volume": 8436.75, "trend": 21.268077, "fair_value": 19.5635, "relative_strength": -21.487646, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.466353, "energy": 27.536197, "activity_lines": [ 20.32638, 20.191105, 20.345483, 20.62655 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.2058, "volume": 8244, "typical_volume": 8551.15, "trend": 21.15927, "fair_value": 19.60501, "relative_strength": -16.880022, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.654633, "energy": 13.771838, "activity_lines": [ 20.642673, 20.381345, 20.41231, 20.622532 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.369, "volume": 5145, "typical_volume": 8320.85, "trend": 21.09997, "fair_value": 19.656313, "relative_strength": -14.628946, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.8009, "energy": 36.018014, "activity_lines": [ 21.225753, 20.768536, 20.59055, 20.70058 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }