{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4726c353-083c-40b0-a512-0c39dbe40cec", "symbol": "FID", "name": "Fiducian Group Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.562, "architecture_energy": 42.53, "architecture_maturity": 81.83, "architecture_confidence": 87.229, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.82, "rotation_up": 26.94, "upward_expansion": 6.23, "deceleration": 56.11, "rotation_down": 41.88, "downward_expansion": 74.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.442, 8.467636, 8.610762, 8.857616 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.47, "trend_reference": 9.30451, "distance_from_trend": -0.089689, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.414877, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.006551, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.665507, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.165957, "excess_performance": -0.229663, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089689, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096791, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.006551, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10485, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.226655, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072228, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.165957, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.713986, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 120017, "relative_activity": 1.125868, "balance": 0.713986, "dry_up": 0.745831, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042957, "annualized_volatility": 0.314653, "from_high_reference": -0.362671, "from_low_reference": 0.09009 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.30451, "fair_value_reference": 8.414877, "structural_low": 7.77, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.004184, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006083, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.121377, "worst_return": -0.184971, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.044685, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.060434, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.098743, "worst_return": -0.161545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.057608, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.069244, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.397633, "worst_return": -0.165957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 8.355633, "relative_strength": -19.45557, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.070542, "energy": 60.232253, "activity_lines": [ 8.474, 8.567455, 8.74419, 9.066759 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.39, "volume": 92355, "typical_volume": 106507.6, "trend": 9.501875, "fair_value": 8.37506, "relative_strength": -19.936336, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.342349, "energy": 47.995162, "activity_lines": [ 8.457333, 8.518909, 8.688, 8.988898 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.4, "volume": 77865, "typical_volume": 105640.5, "trend": 9.403002, "fair_value": 8.393384, "relative_strength": -21.285583, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.59554, "energy": 44.411563, "activity_lines": [ 8.442, 8.483091, 8.642238, 8.917809 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.47, "volume": 120017, "typical_volume": 106599.55, "trend": 9.30451, "fair_value": 8.414877, "relative_strength": -22.665507, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.561627, "energy": 42.529728, "activity_lines": [ 8.442, 8.467636, 8.610762, 8.857616 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }