{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4726c447-0847-4cfc-b2fd-cca5ce548598", "symbol": "CPGN", "name": "Compass Group PLC", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 52.643, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 21.824, "architecture_energy": 40.911, "architecture_maturity": 60.225, "architecture_confidence": 71.294, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.84, "rotation_up": 17.24, "upward_expansion": 56.88, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 46.78, "downward_expansion": 25.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 540.002653, 551.177978, 546.976851, 536.678989 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 536.419983, "trend_reference": 528.328474, "distance_from_trend": 0.015315, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 563.46767, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.048002, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.570913, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.007604, "excess_performance": 0.047063, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015315, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014736, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.048002, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043462, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.085709, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.160267, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007604, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.224483, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.224483, "dry_up": 0.837954, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018708, "annualized_volatility": 0.20928, "from_high_reference": -0.200001, "from_low_reference": 0.097108 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 528.328474, "fair_value_reference": 563.46767, "structural_low": 488.940002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.016526, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.162956, "worst_return": -0.058076, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.033047, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.099574, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.233873, "worst_return": -0.012558, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.098917, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.116466, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.226132, "worst_return": 0.033376, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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1579, "typical_volume": 2957.8, "trend": 530.829137, "fair_value": 562.60286, "relative_strength": -9.260087, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.065357, "energy": 35.398276, "activity_lines": [ 552.523328, 560.470523, 546.051941, 535.876923 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 536.419983, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2957.8, "trend": 529.578805, "fair_value": 563.035265, "relative_strength": -9.272001, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.801862, "energy": 45.684491, "activity_lines": [ 545.00199, 555.688374, 546.627444, 536.237623 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 536.419983, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2957.8, "trend": 528.328474, "fair_value": 563.46767, "relative_strength": -8.570913, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.823756, "energy": 40.911098, "activity_lines": [ 540.002653, 551.177978, 546.976851, 536.678989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }