{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4729d1c0-2a3c-419d-8cb4-6df3dcaed02b", "symbol": "ECE", "name": "UBS BBG MSCI Global Liquid Corp Sustainable UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 50.944, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.687, "architecture_energy": 66.792, "architecture_maturity": 4.505, "architecture_confidence": 83.726, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.35, "rotation_up": 11.51, "upward_expansion": 17.04, "deceleration": 34.49, "rotation_down": 70.82, "downward_expansion": 88.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.005067, 12.050436, 12.076867, 12.092581 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.042, "trend_reference": 12.118467, "distance_from_trend": -0.00631, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.673359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.03158, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.053755, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.009541, "excess_performance": -0.180433, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00631, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001746, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.03158, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014782, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.150538, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031429, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.009541, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.840248, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3998, "relative_activity": 0.26945, "balance": 0.840248, "dry_up": 1.065651, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007346, "annualized_volatility": 0.042974, "from_high_reference": -0.020338, "from_low_reference": 0.010744 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.118467, "fair_value_reference": 11.673359, "structural_low": 11.914, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.000372, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.315789, "median_excess_return": -0.018094, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.041523, "worst_return": -0.055911, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.002807, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.033021, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.07533, "worst_return": -0.073069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.03729, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.061911, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.051051, "worst_return": -0.103935, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010082, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.024328, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002949, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005258, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005662, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", 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11.640462, "relative_strength": -14.767642, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.13156, "energy": 26.329863, "activity_lines": [ 12.152533, 12.130982, 12.120295, 12.129983 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.078, "volume": 13610, "typical_volume": 12678.75, "trend": 12.137333, "fair_value": 11.647359, "relative_strength": -14.618623, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.323158, "energy": 15.681453, "activity_lines": [ 12.132, 12.124, 12.115533, 12.126099 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.044, "volume": 28306, "typical_volume": 14076.55, "trend": 12.134733, "fair_value": 11.654038, "relative_strength": -13.274585, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.340648, "energy": 25.044825, "activity_lines": [ 12.1008, 12.1116, 12.108429, 12.120077 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.972, "volume": 19702, "typical_volume": 15040.75, "trend": 12.129733, "fair_value": 11.660256, "relative_strength": -13.277474, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.022448, "energy": 62.80158, "activity_lines": [ 12.052, 12.087418, 12.095571, 12.109578 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.946, "volume": 11241, "typical_volume": 15469.35, "trend": 12.121733, "fair_value": 11.6665, "relative_strength": -13.643332, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.595947, "energy": 74.526568, "activity_lines": [ 12.004533, 12.0592, 12.081495, 12.097725 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.042, "volume": 3998, "typical_volume": 14837.65, "trend": 12.118467, "fair_value": 11.673359, "relative_strength": -15.053755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.687126, "energy": 66.792284, "activity_lines": [ 12.005067, 12.050436, 12.076867, 12.092581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }