{ "ticker": { "uuid": "472b0fbd-f5f8-49d6-816b-061b9b6436c8", "symbol": "603268", "name": "Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.645, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.01, "architecture_energy": 52.982, "architecture_maturity": 32.326, "architecture_confidence": 82.877, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.39, "rotation_up": 66.64, "upward_expansion": 81.74, "deceleration": 56.09, "rotation_down": 17.65, "downward_expansion": 6.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 161.585335, 155.644911, 150.155144, 142.364194 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 183.110001, "trend_reference": 129.154, "distance_from_trend": 0.417765, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50.56391, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.621358, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 84.559542, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.194774, "excess_performance": 1.237978, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.417765, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.252439, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.621358, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.268228, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.845595, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124351, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.194774, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.742218, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45478780, "relative_activity": 1.409168, "balance": 1.742218, "dry_up": 1.371578, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094227, "annualized_volatility": 0.538158, "from_high_reference": -0.022944, "from_low_reference": 3.03326 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 129.154, "fair_value_reference": 50.56391, "structural_low": 82.080002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.021926, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": 0.023076, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.506652, "worst_return": -0.269815, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.194797, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.201557, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.83199, "worst_return": -0.207917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.015026, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.080317, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.827722, "worst_return": -0.175766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"energy": 49.121474, "activity_lines": [ 150.954666, 148.16909, 142.946286, 133.377161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 141.0, "volume": 52026119, "typical_volume": 32736081.65, "trend": 120.998666, "fair_value": 47.892436, "relative_strength": 59.371943, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.135637, "energy": 35.614683, "activity_lines": [ 148.210666, 146.914909, 143.414762, 134.795656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 152.050003, "volume": 40587135, "typical_volume": 31932930.2, "trend": 123.619333, "fair_value": 48.709744, "relative_strength": 65.949735, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.45389, "energy": 38.236074, "activity_lines": [ 149.607333, 147.915818, 144.788429, 136.798968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 152.600006, "volume": 38970356, "typical_volume": 31654877.7, "trend": 125.829667, "fair_value": 49.536795, "relative_strength": 62.246091, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.299083, "energy": 37.577604, "activity_lines": [ 150.804002, 149.103092, 146.089001, 138.668689 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 183.110001, "volume": 45478780, "typical_volume": 32273486.4, "trend": 129.154, "fair_value": 50.56391, "relative_strength": 84.559542, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.010153, "energy": 52.981504, "activity_lines": [ 161.585335, 155.644911, 150.155144, 142.364194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }