{ "ticker": { "uuid": "472d16aa-b3df-4302-96a9-617eff510d43", "symbol": "RRC", "name": "Range Resources Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 58.259, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.431, "architecture_energy": 20.151, "architecture_maturity": 53.036, "architecture_confidence": 64.747, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.3, "rotation_up": 31.48, "upward_expansion": 20.95, "deceleration": 42.95, "rotation_down": 23.86, "downward_expansion": 54.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.525333, 38.013799, 38.831505, 39.593562 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 38.28, "trend_reference": 39.766989, "distance_from_trend": -0.037393, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.108571, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.090332, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.623566, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.051884, "excess_performance": -0.073741, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037393, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01127, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.090332, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088438, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106236, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047811, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.051884, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.406057, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12076587, "relative_activity": 0.783271, "balance": 1.406057, "dry_up": 1.044947, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062303, "annualized_volatility": 0.308994, "from_high_reference": -0.205564, "from_low_reference": 0.185914 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.766989, "fair_value_reference": 35.108571, "structural_low": 34.87, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.032227, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.011174, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.089257, "worst_return": -0.018068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.124355, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.048814, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.742384, "worst_return": 0.033604, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.196762, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.091453, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.369321, "worst_return": 0.098281, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029959, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052282, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049708, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078283, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030716, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056088, "active": false 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[ 37.436667, 37.572716, 39.069865, 39.633178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.14, "volume": 15977358, "typical_volume": 15833087.2, "trend": 39.600557, "fair_value": 35.065211, "relative_strength": -3.152364, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.687382, "energy": 12.985771, "activity_lines": [ 38.376667, 37.95504, 39.0315, 39.67876 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.28, "volume": 12076587, "typical_volume": 15418142.9, "trend": 39.766989, "fair_value": 35.108571, "relative_strength": -10.623566, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.431493, "energy": 20.150995, "activity_lines": [ 38.525333, 38.013799, 38.831505, 39.593562 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }