{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47307a52-56bc-487a-a887-deff8b495140", "symbol": "EXA1", "name": "iShares EURO STOXX Banks 30-15 UCITS ETF (DE) EUR Acc", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.802, "architecture_energy": 88.597, "architecture_maturity": 35.266, "architecture_confidence": 87.67, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.54, "rotation_up": 76.62, "upward_expansion": 95.11, "deceleration": 43.71, "rotation_down": 16.17, "downward_expansion": 19.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.586266, 20.161636, 19.225986, 18.542692 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 21.299999, "trend_reference": 17.8868, "distance_from_trend": 0.190822, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.619279, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.83316, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.13327, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.205201, "excess_performance": 0.088538, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.190822, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069338, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.83316, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.182965, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.131333, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065991, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.205201, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.183325, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 333208, "relative_activity": 0.842245, "balance": 2.183325, "dry_up": 0.699313, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034124, "annualized_volatility": 0.272616, "from_high_reference": -0.011601, "from_low_reference": 0.506876 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.8868, "fair_value_reference": 11.619279, "structural_low": 14.7, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.028966, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.013124, "regime_survival": 0.757576, "best_return": 0.131494, "worst_return": -0.082066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.092168, "positive_rate": 0.909091, "directional_follow_through": 0.909091, "median_excess_return": 0.037658, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.192568, "worst_return": -0.000158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.19338, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.129484, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.370161, "worst_return": 0.117639, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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67.418778, "energy": 85.777309, "activity_lines": [ 19.780867, 19.297709, 18.412014, 17.952285 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.15, "volume": 206731, "typical_volume": 417598.45, "trend": 17.64247, "fair_value": 11.433146, "relative_strength": 9.90334, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.235653, "energy": 87.433954, "activity_lines": [ 19.918, 19.540091, 18.653017, 18.120836 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.635, "volume": 297271, "typical_volume": 401659.25, "trend": 17.75376, "fair_value": 11.523941, "relative_strength": 11.174132, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.900439, "energy": 83.133445, "activity_lines": [ 20.185467, 19.816982, 18.919803, 18.313902 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.299999, "volume": 333208, "typical_volume": 395618.9, "trend": 17.8868, "fair_value": 11.619279, "relative_strength": 13.13327, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.801688, "energy": 88.597103, "activity_lines": [ 20.586266, 20.161636, 19.225986, 18.542692 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }