{ "ticker": { "uuid": "473d3ee9-ce8f-40ca-888c-a89ca9346122", "symbol": "002927", "name": "Guizhou Taiyong-Changzheng Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.461, "architecture_energy": 74.067, "architecture_maturity": 20.452, "architecture_confidence": 75.969, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.03, "rotation_up": 8.47, "upward_expansion": 16.45, "deceleration": 37.17, "rotation_down": 77.05, "downward_expansion": 92.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.936667, 16.441455, 18.030667, 18.437893 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 15.68, "trend_reference": 19.137, "distance_from_trend": -0.180645, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.745174, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.063399, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.169232, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.161945, "excess_performance": -0.169345, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.180645, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013353, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.063399, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.281039, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.161692, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078661, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.161945, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.709893, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27876723, "relative_activity": 0.651121, "balance": 2.709893, "dry_up": 0.786627, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.177149, "annualized_volatility": 0.601973, "from_high_reference": -0.390121, "from_low_reference": 0.25641 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.137, "fair_value_reference": 14.745174, "structural_low": 12.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.067802, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.025178, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.44719, "worst_return": -0.138196, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.158193, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.141727, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.304481, "worst_return": 0.069503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.147658, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.140328, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.515443, "worst_return": -0.125338, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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44755422, "typical_volume": 47822515.9, "trend": 19.893667, "fair_value": 14.71709, "relative_strength": -14.037394, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.993808, "energy": 23.325006, "activity_lines": [ 19.045333, 20.091091, 19.720143, 19.725656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.35, "volume": 35201815, "typical_volume": 47889673.25, "trend": 19.7, "fair_value": 14.719236, "relative_strength": -21.306949, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.195391, "energy": 52.448602, "activity_lines": [ 17.264, 18.981818, 19.225333, 19.368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.91, "volume": 41019539, "typical_volume": 45725309.15, "trend": 19.503, "fair_value": 14.721582, "relative_strength": -23.658596, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.673953, "energy": 76.782416, "activity_lines": [ 15.724, 17.880727, 18.717286, 18.994452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.48, "volume": 30614797, "typical_volume": 43332327.15, "trend": 19.283667, "fair_value": 14.722297, "relative_strength": -18.870279, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.328368, "energy": 78.017299, "activity_lines": [ 14.953333, 16.986727, 18.302333, 18.670387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.68, "volume": 27876723, "typical_volume": 42813435.55, "trend": 19.137, "fair_value": 14.745174, "relative_strength": -16.169232, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.461179, "energy": 74.06703, "activity_lines": [ 14.936667, 16.441455, 18.030667, 18.437893 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }