{ "ticker": { "uuid": "473f7416-add4-4fc6-b93f-bc2630222d7f", "symbol": "FDM", "name": "FDM Group (Holdings) plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.387, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -4.564, "architecture_energy": 17.287, "architecture_maturity": 21.02, "architecture_confidence": 65.244, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.47, "rotation_up": 41.8, "upward_expansion": 35.15, "deceleration": 40.3, "rotation_down": 16.31, "downward_expansion": 41.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 115.813333, 112.090909, 110.17102, 112.579138 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 111.2, "trend_reference": 119.459959, "distance_from_trend": -0.069144, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 277.10632, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.59871, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.896883, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.282321, "excess_performance": -0.333556, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069144, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064408, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.59871, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055511, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178969, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124286, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.282321, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.377906, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3738806, "relative_activity": 2.322082, "balance": 1.377906, "dry_up": 1.395787, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104446, "annualized_volatility": 0.434197, "from_high_reference": -0.32907, "from_low_reference": 0.177145 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 119.459959, "fair_value_reference": 277.10632, "structural_low": 94.465822, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.038414, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.046498, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.12796, "worst_return": -0.226398, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.076786, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.070595, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.12232, "worst_return": -0.272331, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.139749, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.172556, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.167438, "worst_return": -0.340745, 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.3219, "energy": 46.068577, "activity_lines": [ 104.186667, 106.363446, 108.038945, 114.633941 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 107.0, "volume": 623597, "typical_volume": 1539931.65, "trend": 121.39364, "fair_value": 288.655434, "relative_strength": -21.379316, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.173801, "energy": 34.981032, "activity_lines": [ 105.186667, 106.272552, 107.48527, 113.652518 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 113.4, "volume": 1152263, "typical_volume": 1550057.75, "trend": 120.808553, "fair_value": 285.50047, "relative_strength": -15.960305, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.822424, "energy": 19.996933, "activity_lines": [ 108.226667, 107.362765, 107.710397, 113.136799 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 118.2, "volume": 1716242, "typical_volume": 1609354.65, "trend": 120.356808, "fair_value": 282.670454, "relative_strength": -12.095232, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.841861, "energy": 10.619347, "activity_lines": [ 112.106667, 109.270435, 108.526709, 112.968505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 123.2, "volume": 2382169, "typical_volume": 1706119.4, "trend": 120.078394, "fair_value": 280.115507, "relative_strength": -9.241245, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 8.609487, "energy": 20.50102, "activity_lines": [ 116.64, 111.868315, 109.905643, 113.151937 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 111.2, "volume": 3738806, "typical_volume": 1610109.05, "trend": 119.459959, "fair_value": 277.10632, "relative_strength": -17.896883, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.563851, "energy": 17.286811, "activity_lines": [ 115.813333, 112.090909, 110.17102, 112.579138 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }