{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47436986-3a2d-4161-92b9-b82c7ca8a2af", "symbol": "MRN", "name": "Mersen S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.619, "architecture_energy": 27.627, "architecture_maturity": 83.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.17, "rotation_up": 31.28, "upward_expansion": 58.6, "deceleration": 88.23, "rotation_down": 27.47, "downward_expansion": 19.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.928, 38.365038, 37.622756, 35.031506 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 40.68, "trend_reference": 31.860405, "distance_from_trend": 0.27682, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.52072, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.478159, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 34.624787, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.570656, "excess_performance": 0.517345, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.27682, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.214023, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.478159, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.226185, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.346248, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065657, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.570656, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.104901, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 230893, "relative_activity": 0.939333, "balance": 3.104901, "dry_up": 1.061149, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090674, "annualized_volatility": 0.519806, "from_high_reference": -0.060942, "from_low_reference": 0.999017 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.860405, "fair_value_reference": 27.52072, "structural_low": 20.9, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.012084, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.005242, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.39085, "worst_return": -0.161602, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.010093, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000464, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.79917, "worst_return": -0.146409, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.009172, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.010596, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.603653, "worst_return": -0.064397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015982, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006897, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026859, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058939, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.109319, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", 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"activity_lines": [ 39.330329, 39.804831, 36.037178, 33.305223 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.580002, "volume": 227859, "typical_volume": 246045.9, "trend": 30.445405, "fair_value": 27.536428, "relative_strength": 25.832011, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.549526, "energy": 30.587541, "activity_lines": [ 37.853767, 39.142247, 36.332739, 33.666015 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.939999, "volume": 206843, "typical_volume": 243849.0, "trend": 30.878405, "fair_value": 27.509145, "relative_strength": 25.530964, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.785557, "energy": 25.781542, "activity_lines": [ 36.986217, 38.519662, 36.625776, 34.020505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.18, "volume": 377749, "typical_volume": 255468.7, "trend": 31.311072, "fair_value": 27.500756, "relative_strength": 26.973806, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.279105, "energy": 25.919297, "activity_lines": [ 36.88873, 38.107623, 36.986956, 34.427059 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.68, "volume": 230893, "typical_volume": 245805.2, "trend": 31.860405, "fair_value": 27.52072, "relative_strength": 34.624787, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.619458, "energy": 27.626943, "activity_lines": [ 37.928, 38.365038, 37.622756, 35.031506 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }