{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47439879-71b1-458c-bfe2-2ffba0575f54", "symbol": "SBO", "name": "SBO AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.567, "architecture_energy": 53.455, "architecture_maturity": 13.355, "architecture_confidence": 88.368, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.67, "rotation_up": 18.92, "upward_expansion": 7.86, "deceleration": 48.31, "rotation_down": 58.26, "downward_expansion": 78.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.796666, 30.265454, 31.824598, 32.592424 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.4, "trend_reference": 33.097767, "distance_from_trend": -0.141936, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.150085, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.14329, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.993744, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.12139, "excess_performance": -0.295636, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.141936, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036726, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.14329, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116175, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.239937, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.187148, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.12139, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.934477, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 222433, "relative_activity": 1.419806, "balance": 0.934477, "dry_up": 0.985878, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072454, "annualized_volatility": 0.27923, "from_high_reference": -0.235991, "from_low_reference": 0.128177 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.097767, "fair_value_reference": 33.150085, "structural_low": 28.200001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.025969, "positive_rate": 0.576923, "directional_follow_through": 0.423077, "median_excess_return": 0.008321, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.195477, "worst_return": -0.141225, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.014621, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.015018, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.563813, "worst_return": -0.226191, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.058725, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.1465, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.230894, "worst_return": -0.218254, "sufficient": true }, { 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33.410323, "relative_strength": -14.414699, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.474373, "energy": 50.747547, "activity_lines": [ 30.703333, 31.336363, 32.675175, 33.131437 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.549999, "volume": 190638, "typical_volume": 163940.45, "trend": 33.181216, "fair_value": 33.285877, "relative_strength": -19.032281, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.863355, "energy": 46.477195, "activity_lines": [ 30.463333, 30.861818, 32.290931, 32.90089 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.4, "volume": 222433, "typical_volume": 156664.35, "trend": 33.097767, "fair_value": 33.150085, "relative_strength": -23.993744, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.567454, "energy": 53.455232, "activity_lines": [ 29.796666, 30.265454, 31.824598, 32.592424 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }