{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4750b777-dd3a-4607-b1d6-636c208bcc1a", "symbol": "ROLL", "name": "iShares Bloomberg Enhanced Roll Yield Commodity Swap UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.425, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.192, "architecture_energy": 39.081, "architecture_maturity": 39.293, "architecture_confidence": 59.854, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.1, "rotation_up": 69.24, "upward_expansion": 70.42, "deceleration": 61.73, "rotation_down": 9.39, "downward_expansion": 11.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.814333, 10.621418, 10.695833, 10.620606 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.862, "trend_reference": 10.385383, "distance_from_trend": 0.045893, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.131196, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.335843, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.668274, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.170411, "excess_performance": 0.119176, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045893, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068853, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.335843, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091301, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.056683, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142513, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.170411, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.47815, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 319978, "relative_activity": 0.431429, "balance": 2.47815, "dry_up": 1.560172, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031503, "annualized_volatility": 0.15339, "from_high_reference": -0.069556, "from_low_reference": 0.394531 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.385383, "fair_value_reference": 8.131196, "structural_low": 9.132, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of 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"relative_strength": 5.721952, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.027784, "energy": 30.915224, "activity_lines": [ 10.223533, 10.465855, 10.631719, 10.458108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.73, "volume": 902843, "typical_volume": 705080.2, "trend": 10.171733, "fair_value": 8.062116, "relative_strength": 8.258681, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.108249, "energy": 22.485788, "activity_lines": [ 10.375733, 10.474127, 10.643062, 10.498916 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.954, "volume": 2977303, "typical_volume": 773478.65, "trend": 10.24565, "fair_value": 8.085289, "relative_strength": 8.793279, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.073116, "energy": 21.721713, "activity_lines": [ 10.5934, 10.531055, 10.671043, 10.549385 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.808, "volume": 428406, "typical_volume": 738228.6, "trend": 10.320417, "fair_value": 8.107969, "relative_strength": 5.750073, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.370737, "energy": 32.056011, "activity_lines": [ 10.7228, 10.5674, 10.681452, 10.585666 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.862, "volume": 319978, "typical_volume": 741669.85, "trend": 10.385383, "fair_value": 8.131196, "relative_strength": 5.668274, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.192152, "energy": 39.081224, "activity_lines": [ 10.814333, 10.621418, 10.695833, 10.620606 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }