{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47553786-80d6-4a4e-9007-402a51738e80", "symbol": "002650", "name": "Jiajia Food Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.76, "architecture_energy": 48.617, "architecture_maturity": 7.408, "architecture_confidence": 81.286, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.33, "rotation_up": 13.86, "upward_expansion": 6.87, "deceleration": 47.85, "rotation_down": 63.91, "downward_expansion": 80.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.05, 6.184364, 6.678857, 6.77329 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.34, "trend_reference": 6.799667, "distance_from_trend": -0.067601, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.899551, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.293996, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.42412, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.001575, "excess_performance": -0.008975, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.067601, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029035, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.293996, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.367951, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094241, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017934, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001575, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.81937, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25465900, "relative_activity": 0.817322, "balance": 0.81937, "dry_up": 0.83394, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101674, "annualized_volatility": 0.473151, "from_high_reference": -0.263647, "from_low_reference": 0.212237 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.799667, "fair_value_reference": 4.899551, "structural_low": 5.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": 0.006425, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 1.092105, "worst_return": -0.241758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.057513, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.046083, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 1.606557, "worst_return": -0.319489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.011364, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.070134, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.557377, "worst_return": -0.415335, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012766, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01497, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020472, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015175, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", 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"activity_lines": [ 6.147333, 6.574545, 6.963238, 6.933785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.62, "volume": 27603598, "typical_volume": 31163680.5, "trend": 6.824667, "fair_value": 4.872244, "relative_strength": -17.261303, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.430355, "energy": 72.073385, "activity_lines": [ 5.923333, 6.333091, 6.828714, 6.853183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.05, "volume": 29780136, "typical_volume": 31296122.05, "trend": 6.803667, "fair_value": 4.885064, "relative_strength": -9.306596, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.730721, "energy": 72.338459, "activity_lines": [ 5.94, 6.216182, 6.738952, 6.803204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.34, "volume": 25465900, "typical_volume": 31157719.55, "trend": 6.799667, "fair_value": 4.899551, "relative_strength": -9.42412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.759659, "energy": 48.617105, "activity_lines": [ 6.05, 6.184364, 6.678857, 6.77329 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }