{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4756089b-ce0c-4639-a6fb-12795e1b043a", "symbol": "NTSX", "name": "WisdomTree US Efficient Core UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.188, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.606, "architecture_energy": 54.319, "architecture_maturity": 85.835, "architecture_confidence": 52.362, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.36, "rotation_up": 47.65, "upward_expansion": 75.17, "deceleration": 71.43, "rotation_down": 29.1, "downward_expansion": 13.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.292333, 37.237727, 36.77631, 36.048635 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 38.055, "trend_reference": 35.1895, "distance_from_trend": 0.081431, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.180724, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.220466, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.956888, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.140396, "excess_performance": -0.030496, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081431, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033288, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.220466, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050056, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049569, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009105, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.140396, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.867293, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2869, "relative_activity": 1.571194, "balance": 2.867293, "dry_up": 0.93483, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020557, "annualized_volatility": 0.117556, "from_high_reference": -0.020211, "from_low_reference": 0.206181 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.1895, "fair_value_reference": 31.180724, "structural_low": 31.985001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.006548, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.012183, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.03875, "worst_return": -0.026411, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.062344, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.015083, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.062395, "worst_return": 0.001471, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.063906, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.002764, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.063906, "worst_return": 0.063906, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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31.09549, "relative_strength": -4.428256, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.468056, "energy": 62.564478, "activity_lines": [ 37.243001, 37.157546, 36.466357, 35.757194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.494999, "volume": 1187, "typical_volume": 1795.2, "trend": 35.064167, "fair_value": 31.132986, "relative_strength": -6.289058, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.005156, "energy": 46.398129, "activity_lines": [ 36.998, 37.056182, 36.554572, 35.855678 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.055, "volume": 2869, "typical_volume": 1826.0, "trend": 35.1895, "fair_value": 31.180724, "relative_strength": -4.956888, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.605645, "energy": 54.318572, "activity_lines": [ 37.292333, 37.237727, 36.77631, 36.048635 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }