{ "ticker": { "uuid": "476104f6-5c23-49fd-9b6e-8d5f387f93bd", "symbol": "KAL", "name": "Kalgoorlie Gold Mining Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.702, "architecture_energy": 32.957, "architecture_maturity": 94.304, "architecture_confidence": 72.93, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.25, "rotation_up": 26.81, "upward_expansion": 12.59, "deceleration": 63.11, "rotation_down": 45.27, "downward_expansion": 71.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.029067, 0.029018, 0.030262, 0.032826 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.028, "trend_reference": 0.036717, "distance_from_trend": -0.237404, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.036372, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.230173, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.585937, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.363636, "excess_performance": -0.427342, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.237404, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1992, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.230173, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.237151, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.395859, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181099, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.363636, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.639311, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3990458, "relative_activity": 2.200841, "balance": 0.639311, "dry_up": 0.884668, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.174451, "annualized_volatility": 0.842104, "from_high_reference": -0.670588, "from_low_reference": 0.166667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.036717, "fair_value_reference": 0.036372, "structural_low": 0.024, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.007489, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 3.5, "worst_return": -0.226667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.08, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.101379, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 2.472222, "worst_return": -0.292683, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.1225, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.061773, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.604167, "worst_return": -0.21875, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.054772, "energy": 37.578454, "activity_lines": [ 0.029867, 0.0294, 0.032338, 0.035333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.029, "volume": 1589743, "typical_volume": 1972020.35, "trend": 0.038783, "fair_value": 0.036417, "relative_strength": -35.158676, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.684938, "energy": 37.017679, "activity_lines": [ 0.029933, 0.029218, 0.03175, 0.034659 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.03, "volume": 643137, "typical_volume": 1935813.4, "trend": 0.038217, "fair_value": 0.036397, "relative_strength": -32.34169, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.586902, "energy": 25.950092, "activity_lines": [ 0.030133, 0.029364, 0.031324, 0.034092 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.028, "volume": 192812, "typical_volume": 1739119.85, "trend": 0.037417, "fair_value": 0.036385, "relative_strength": -37.936923, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.733193, "energy": 25.190102, "activity_lines": [ 0.029733, 0.029182, 0.03076, 0.033433 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.028, "volume": 3990458, "typical_volume": 1813151.35, "trend": 0.036717, "fair_value": 0.036372, "relative_strength": -39.585937, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.702051, "energy": 32.957018, "activity_lines": [ 0.029067, 0.029018, 0.030262, 0.032826 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }