{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47612bc1-4e1f-40ff-a3a5-f69956bf33e8", "symbol": "AQB", "name": "AquaBounty Technologies Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.405, "architecture_energy": 22.861, "architecture_maturity": 53.858, "architecture_confidence": 82.381, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.53, "rotation_up": 39.08, "upward_expansion": 60.74, "deceleration": 86.44, "rotation_down": 26.11, "downward_expansion": 14.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.008147, 1.002722, 0.989321, 0.97423 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.17, "trend_reference": 0.96009, "distance_from_trend": 0.218636, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.489618, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.214564, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.43539, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.425091, "excess_performance": 0.237638, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.218636, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01121, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.214564, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.324375, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044354, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.181544, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.425091, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 19.515018, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25920388, "relative_activity": 17.630645, "balance": 19.515018, "dry_up": 4.453277, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.147876, "annualized_volatility": 0.565302, "from_high_reference": -0.60339, "from_low_reference": 0.671429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.96009, "fair_value_reference": 1.489618, "structural_low": 0.84, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.044266, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.077754, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.563962, "worst_return": -0.196216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.18191, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.242438, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.486111, "worst_return": -0.496258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.544365, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.554227, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.370038, "worst_return": -0.65, "sufficient": false 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0.976678, 0.96297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.98, "volume": 485962, "typical_volume": 200887.7, "trend": 0.951923, "fair_value": 1.634736, "relative_strength": -20.046834, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.266347, "energy": 23.451872, "activity_lines": [ 1.013333, 1.003176, 0.978886, 0.964898 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.9699, "volume": 156550, "typical_volume": 199702.45, "trend": 0.955913, "fair_value": 1.589159, "relative_strength": -17.399364, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.906376, "energy": 23.369365, "activity_lines": [ 0.999967, 0.999887, 0.97961, 0.966058 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.91, "volume": 47623, "typical_volume": 198143.0, "trend": 0.952247, "fair_value": 1.547184, "relative_strength": -21.168177, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.329286, "energy": 10.248685, "activity_lines": [ 0.96864, 0.985164, 0.974629, 0.963095 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.9056, "volume": 64084, "typical_volume": 191347.75, "trend": 0.950767, "fair_value": 1.516554, "relative_strength": -21.988232, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.167875, "energy": 13.535752, "activity_lines": [ 0.937847, 0.969185, 0.96931, 0.960086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.17, "volume": 25920388, "typical_volume": 1470189.45, "trend": 0.96009, "fair_value": 1.489618, "relative_strength": -4.43539, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.404544, "energy": 22.861412, "activity_lines": [ 1.008147, 1.002722, 0.989321, 0.97423 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }