{ "ticker": { "uuid": "476adcb6-127b-4eb4-82a3-8350ea2cb2de", "symbol": "002785", "name": "Xiamen Wanli Stone Stock Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.532, "architecture_energy": 74.868, "architecture_maturity": 16.703, "architecture_confidence": 84.117, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.69, "rotation_up": 9.0, "upward_expansion": 17.59, "deceleration": 37.13, "rotation_down": 72.99, "downward_expansion": 90.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.890666, 36.481636, 40.231095, 41.368559 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 34.529999, "trend_reference": 42.305333, "distance_from_trend": -0.183791, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.484167, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.096742, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.16009, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.205476, "excess_performance": -0.212876, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.183791, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012485, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.096742, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.679788, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.131601, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.345513, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.205476, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.898051, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24985298, "relative_activity": 0.78107, "balance": 0.898051, "dry_up": 0.955817, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149079, "annualized_volatility": 0.609551, "from_high_reference": -0.397382, "from_low_reference": 0.2593 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.305333, "fair_value_reference": 31.484167, "structural_low": 30.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.023831, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.047671, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.197513, "worst_return": -0.137141, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.042171, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.054714, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.161137, "worst_return": 0.005241, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.279666, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.193608, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.489353, "worst_return": 0.024491, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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41.668667, 44.497273, 44.448096, 43.823333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 44.23, "volume": 5679251, "typical_volume": 35103563.1, "trend": 42.497333, "fair_value": 31.086282, "relative_strength": 1.380384, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.730837, "energy": 19.556301, "activity_lines": [ 42.448667, 44.177637, 44.419953, 43.948151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 36.43, "volume": 41586545, "typical_volume": 34709754.3, "trend": 42.46, "fair_value": 31.184551, "relative_strength": -13.259818, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.621327, "energy": 30.095514, "activity_lines": [ 40.661334, 42.372, 43.662238, 43.55671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.950001, "volume": 37566154, "typical_volume": 34519166.95, "trend": 42.514, "fair_value": 31.283269, "relative_strength": -3.458481, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.43935, "energy": 32.250809, "activity_lines": [ 39.345334, 40.928728, 43.004858, 43.201226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.099998, "volume": 32774670, "typical_volume": 32736917.65, "trend": 42.460667, "fair_value": 31.348462, "relative_strength": -16.406207, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.824076, "energy": 57.975897, "activity_lines": [ 36.608, 38.898182, 41.937619, 42.529355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.27, "volume": 26974627, "typical_volume": 32313486.75, "trend": 42.331667, "fair_value": 31.410064, "relative_strength": -14.667228, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.133867, "energy": 79.332151, "activity_lines": [ 34.512666, 37.320364, 40.948095, 41.871893 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.529999, "volume": 24985298, "typical_volume": 31988534.9, "trend": 42.305333, "fair_value": 31.484167, "relative_strength": -13.16009, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.531797, "energy": 74.86792, "activity_lines": [ 33.890666, 36.481636, 40.231095, 41.368559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }