{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47725e78-0b0c-446c-ae93-52b62ccebe4f", "symbol": "HD", "name": "The Home Depot, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 50.515, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -7.663, "architecture_energy": 8.312, "architecture_maturity": 29.774, "architecture_confidence": 46.143, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.05, "rotation_up": 20.99, "upward_expansion": 22.27, "deceleration": 60.27, "rotation_down": 32.55, "downward_expansion": 56.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 5894.666667, 5916.807262, 5799.482168, 5848.722294 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 6068.0, "trend_reference": 5997.236882, "distance_from_trend": 0.011799, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6616.155057, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.082851, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.760816, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.086352, "excess_performance": -0.031685, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011799, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029619, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.082851, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087381, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077608, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.193806, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.086352, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.008295, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 556, "relative_activity": 0.516849, "balance": 2.008295, "dry_up": 0.309319, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040563, "annualized_volatility": 0.251029, "from_high_reference": -0.227525, "from_low_reference": 0.202101 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5997.236882, "fair_value_reference": 6616.155057, "structural_low": 5047.82724, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.014285, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003863, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.071503, "worst_return": -0.117728, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.080221, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.105558, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.086481, "worst_return": -0.173493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.059591, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.035096, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.306199, "worst_return": -0.068904, "sufficient": 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"regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048903, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.006989, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015016, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051368, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045972, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", 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"volume": 556, "typical_volume": 1075.75, "trend": 5997.236882, "fair_value": 6616.155057, "relative_strength": -7.760816, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.663184, "energy": 8.311897, "activity_lines": [ 5894.666667, 5916.807262, 5799.482168, 5848.722294 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }