{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47798135-b485-4908-9a9f-df0e1d926c02", "symbol": "ECVT", "name": "Ecovyst Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.566, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -54.2, "architecture_energy": 38.608, "architecture_maturity": 41.711, "architecture_confidence": 69.004, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.78, "rotation_up": 20.68, "upward_expansion": 11.08, "deceleration": 56.79, "rotation_down": 61.94, "downward_expansion": 50.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.68, 11.982727, 12.602333, 12.622602 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.38, "trend_reference": 12.403, "distance_from_trend": -0.163106, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.272692, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.119416, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.12453, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.060633, "excess_performance": -0.186258, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.163106, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087505, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.119416, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.427825, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.151245, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.435438, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060633, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.390109, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7373207, "relative_activity": 0.822491, "balance": 0.390109, "dry_up": 0.718953, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0976, "annualized_volatility": 0.355358, "from_high_reference": -0.311899, "from_low_reference": 0.40081 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.403, "fair_value_reference": 9.272692, "structural_low": 10.305, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.035545, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.013607, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.133867, "worst_return": -0.140084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.014382, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.0331, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.306173, "worst_return": -0.035992, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.334948, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.263955, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.719753, "worst_return": -0.049856, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.008629, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.344833, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.008629, "worst_return": -0.008629, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05317, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018889, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.086957, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054088, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043883, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.17296, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035765, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.129687, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.267007, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051314, "active": false 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"regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.448846, "energy": 21.103417, "activity_lines": [ 12.316, 12.572545, 12.997762, 12.758237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.46, "volume": 5603763, "typical_volume": 9836033.5, "trend": 12.338, "fair_value": 9.258333, "relative_strength": 6.931104, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.898922, "energy": 19.136339, "activity_lines": [ 12.360667, 12.490182, 12.950143, 12.771484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.06, "volume": 5426433, "typical_volume": 9573036.05, "trend": 12.409667, "fair_value": 9.271474, "relative_strength": 2.075022, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.509635, "energy": 19.278151, "activity_lines": [ 12.296, 12.373273, 12.857619, 12.753548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.38, "volume": 7373207, "typical_volume": 8964488.8, "trend": 12.403, "fair_value": 9.272692, "relative_strength": -15.12453, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -54.199593, "energy": 38.60827, "activity_lines": [ 11.68, 11.982727, 12.602333, 12.622602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }