{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4779ec8a-03f6-4f8c-9f7e-bdd85e8f1c87", "symbol": "IRON", "name": "Ironveld Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.739, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.434, "architecture_energy": 33.788, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.623, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.02, "rotation_up": 27.73, "upward_expansion": 21.55, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 39.18, "downward_expansion": 64.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.000221, 0.000219, 0.000223, 0.000255 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.00021, "trend_reference": 0.000305, "distance_from_trend": -0.311475, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.000791, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.734414, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -48.805549, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.522727, "excess_performance": -0.573963, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.311475, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215938, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.734414, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054814, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.488055, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043954, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.522727, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.295519, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 255918351, "relative_activity": 0.921759, "balance": 2.295519, "dry_up": 2.056172, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142857, "annualized_volatility": 0.838608, "from_high_reference": -0.730769, "from_low_reference": 0.105263 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.000305, "fair_value_reference": 0.000791, "structural_low": 0.00019, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.073603, "positive_rate": 0.21875, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": -0.058608, "regime_survival": 0.90625, "best_return": 0.487603, "worst_return": -0.489362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.262295, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.27099, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.528926, "worst_return": -0.614865, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.322811, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.363266, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.553719, "worst_return": -0.70625, 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163465589.25, "trend": 0.000335, "fair_value": 0.000866, "relative_strength": -52.533209, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.629812, "energy": 83.32737, "activity_lines": [ 0.000207, 0.000213, 0.000237, 0.00028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.00025, "volume": 1411430189, "typical_volume": 234037098.7, "trend": 0.000327, "fair_value": 0.000847, "relative_strength": -40.360427, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.631312, "energy": 50.844693, "activity_lines": [ 0.000221, 0.000219, 0.000234, 0.000274 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.00024, "volume": 396962696, "typical_volume": 253885233.5, "trend": 0.00032, "fair_value": 0.000829, "relative_strength": -42.594392, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.556533, "energy": 39.189595, "activity_lines": [ 0.000229, 0.000223, 0.000231, 0.000268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.00021, "volume": 219200185, "typical_volume": 264845242.75, "trend": 0.000313, "fair_value": 0.00081, "relative_strength": -49.625951, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.741018, "energy": 38.910462, "activity_lines": [ 0.000225, 0.000221, 0.000226, 0.000261 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.00021, "volume": 255918351, "typical_volume": 277641160.3, "trend": 0.000305, "fair_value": 0.000791, "relative_strength": -48.805549, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.434033, "energy": 33.787506, "activity_lines": [ 0.000221, 0.000219, 0.000223, 0.000255 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }