{ "ticker": { "uuid": "477d5b3f-c8ac-4443-9fbe-53a34668ff78", "symbol": "CDT", "name": "Castle Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.932, "architecture_energy": 26.893, "architecture_maturity": 66.318, "architecture_confidence": 92.355, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.23, "rotation_up": 26.56, "upward_expansion": 57.63, "deceleration": 90.79, "rotation_down": 27.63, "downward_expansion": 21.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.071867, 0.072909, 0.070152, 0.066071 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.07, "trend_reference": 0.0623, "distance_from_trend": 0.123596, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.122962, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.430716, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.582264, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.206897, "excess_performance": 0.143191, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.123596, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079099, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.430716, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.221979, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.045823, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.249585, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.206897, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.745149, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1904884, "relative_activity": 0.811919, "balance": 6.745149, "dry_up": 0.468889, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084615, "annualized_volatility": 0.791259, "from_high_reference": -0.204545, "from_low_reference": 0.891892 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0623, "fair_value_reference": 0.122962, "structural_low": 0.037, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.04485, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.344828, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.009418, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.034483, "worst_return": -0.214286, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.683333, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.721451, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.666667, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.866667, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.945792, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.866667, "worst_return": 0.866667, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2022-05-06", "end": "2022-05-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2022-06-03", "end": "2022-07-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.388889, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-07-08", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.272727, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.647059, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.141304, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.345679, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.122807, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065789, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027778, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.33, "volume": 220368, "typical_volume": 310204.4, "trend": 0.497, "fair_value": 0.6625, "relative_strength": -45.547223, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.011665, "energy": 69.656323, 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11.946765, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.938257, "energy": 41.461013, "activity_lines": [ 0.073067, 0.074636, 0.067429, 0.064047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.072, "volume": 1349970, "typical_volume": 2307059.5, "trend": 0.061533, "fair_value": 0.126269, "relative_strength": 14.045101, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.852143, "energy": 36.410997, "activity_lines": [ 0.072467, 0.074291, 0.068405, 0.064748 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.074, "volume": 898882, "typical_volume": 2321404.3, "trend": 0.061967, "fair_value": 0.124628, "relative_strength": 14.316925, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.898679, "energy": 34.603942, "activity_lines": [ 0.0728, 0.073909, 0.06951, 0.065553 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.07, "volume": 1904884, "typical_volume": 2346151.2, "trend": 0.0623, "fair_value": 0.122962, "relative_strength": 4.582264, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.931666, "energy": 26.892675, "activity_lines": [ 0.071867, 0.072909, 0.070152, 0.066071 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }