{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47880019-7708-496e-a501-4aec0e318320", "symbol": "SKC", "name": "SkyCity Entertainment Group Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -13.285, "architecture_energy": 20.969, "architecture_maturity": 94.326, "architecture_confidence": 51.458, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.66, "rotation_up": 36.64, "upward_expansion": 27.07, "deceleration": 50.16, "rotation_down": 19.95, "downward_expansion": 49.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.607667, 0.586273, 0.578643, 0.616054 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.605, "trend_reference": 0.684833, "distance_from_trend": -0.116573, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.266756, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.522402, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.531105, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.3125, "excess_performance": -0.340774, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116573, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123133, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.522402, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020376, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.195311, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032802, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.3125, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.799571, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27205742, "relative_activity": 3.709426, "balance": 0.799571, "dry_up": 2.269645, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090273, "annualized_volatility": 0.473204, "from_high_reference": -0.40099, "from_low_reference": 0.315217 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.684833, "fair_value_reference": 1.266756, "structural_low": 0.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.002591, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003975, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.149172, "worst_return": -0.303922, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.036491, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.065854, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.24812, "worst_return": -0.277174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.086742, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.126523, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.18705, "worst_return": -0.469466, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 5768287.55, "trend": 0.704667, "fair_value": 1.286614, "relative_strength": -15.801154, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.764999, "energy": 20.960282, "activity_lines": [ 0.587, 0.563455, 0.578048, 0.627344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.62, "volume": 7940579, "typical_volume": 6068225.6, "trend": 0.695333, "fair_value": 1.276733, "relative_strength": -17.730835, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.049338, "energy": 22.556262, "activity_lines": [ 0.601667, 0.577091, 0.578643, 0.621882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.605, "volume": 27205742, "typical_volume": 7334219.1, "trend": 0.684833, "fair_value": 1.266756, "relative_strength": -19.531105, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.285294, "energy": 20.968909, "activity_lines": [ 0.607667, 0.586273, 0.578643, 0.616054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }